Recurve Capital’s Analysis on Carvana (CVNA)

2 hours ago 1

Soumya Eswaran

Fri, July 3, 2026 astatine 9:38 AM CDT 3 min read

Recurve Capital precocious published its capitalist update for June 2026. A transcript of the missive tin beryllium downloaded here. The portfolio underperformed importantly this year, mostly owed to Carvana, which saw a diminution of 10% successful June and 22% year-to-date (YTD) done June 30th. This driblet has contributed astir 80% to the portfolio's mediocre show for the year. In June, Recurve Capital Partners reported a instrumentality of -4.3% (gross) and -4.4% (net), compared to -1.1% for the S&P 500 Index and -2.8% for the Nasdaq. Please reappraisal the Strategy's apical 5 holdings to summation insights into their cardinal selections for 2026.

In its second-quarter 2026 capitalist letter, Recurve Capital highlighted Carvana Co. (NYSE:CVNA). Carvana Co. (NYSE:CVNA) is simply a US-based utilized car retailer that operates an e-commerce platform. On July 2, 2026, Carvana Co. (NYSE:CVNA) closed astatine $68.60 per share. One-month instrumentality of Carvana Co. (NYSE:CVNA) was 3.14%, portion its shares mislaid 1.53% implicit the past 52 weeks. Carvana Co. (NYSE:CVNA) has a marketplace capitalization of $75.24 billion.

Recurve Capital stated the pursuing regarding Carvana Co. (NYSE:CVNA) successful its Q2 2026 capitalist letter:

"Recurve is underperforming the marketplace meaningfully successful 2026. In June, we had a equilibrium of winners and losers crossed the portfolio, but our show was chiefly driven by different antagonistic period for Carvana Co. (NYSE:CVNA) (-10% successful June, the remainder of the portfolio was positive). There are plentifulness of thematic topics that could beryllium discussed, but I privation to usage Carvana arsenic a live, applicable illustration of however I expect Recurve to make returns implicit a semipermanent horizon. This treatment volition absorption connected Carvana, but the aforesaid mentality applies to the broader portfolio.

Carvana is -22% YTD done June 30th and has driven astir 80% of our antagonistic show YTD. An different somewhat antagonistic show YTD looks rather a spot worse due to the fact that our astir important presumption is underperforming the indices by implicit 3,000 bps successful 1H 2026.

For Carvana, we generated important affirmative returns erstwhile currency travel flipped from materially antagonistic (2021, 2022) to materially affirmative (2023, 2024, 2025). Today successful 2026, proprietor net are continuing to turn substantially. The illustration beneath shows statement 2026 (blue) and 2027 (red) EBITDA estimates for Carvana, which is simply a decent proxy for proprietor net for this exercise. We tin spot expectations for 2026 rising from $600M successful aboriginal 2023 to astir $3B today. Because it was a highly levered concern astatine that time, the banal roseate from <$2 successful aboriginal 2023 to present ~$65, a ~33x instrumentality connected a 5x summation successful expectations..." (Click present to work the afloat text)

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