Oracle stock dividend under threat amid massive AI push

Oracle banal has been volatile successful caller months. Shares of the unreality titan roseate from $85 successful January 2023 to an all-time precocious of $346 successful September 2025.

Down 58% from all-time highs, Oracle (ORCL) banal is presently valued astatine a marketplace headdress of $411 cardinal and trades astatine $139.

While ORCL is nether pressure, its gross is increasing faster than it has successful implicit 15 years.

Artificial quality contracts are piling up. And Wall Street is paying adjacent attention.

But there's a fig that income investors can't ignore: Free currency flow has gone from a humble affirmative to deeply, alarmingly negative, each successful the span of 2 years.

So what does that mean for Oracle arsenic a dividend stock? And should shareholders beryllium worried?

To recognize the unit connected Oracle's dividend, you person to recognize what the institution is building.

"Demand for AI infrastructure, some GPU and CPU, continues to transcend supply," Oracle CEO Clay Magouyrk told analysts connected the company's fiscal third-quarter 2026 net call. "This is straight disposable successful our $553 cardinal RPO."

Oracle has secured much than 10 gigawatts of power and data halfway capacity coming online implicit the adjacent 3 years.

The institution besides tripled its manufacturing sites and accrued rack output fourfold, each wrong a azygous year.

Related: Bank of America sends stark Oracle banal connection to investors

That benignant of build-out costs superior money.

• Capital expenditure totaled $21.22 billion successful fiscal twelvemonth 2025. Analysts present expect that fig to balloon to $50.64 cardinal successful FY26, a 138.7% leap successful a azygous year.

• CapEx is projected to reach $62.42 cardinal successful FY27 and $73.30 cardinal successful FY28.

The result? Free currency travel has collapsed.

• Oracle generated astir $11.8 cardinal successful escaped currency travel successful FY24.

• That fig flipped to -$0.4 cardinal successful FY25 and is projected to deteriorate further to -$23.28 cardinal successful FY26 and -$27.63 cardinal successful FY27.

To money its AI investments, Oracle raised$30 cardinal done investment-grade bonds and convertible preferred banal successful February 2026, portion of a broader program to raise to $50 cardinal successful indebtedness and equity this calendar year.

That's a batch of indebtedness for a institution that besides pays a dividend to shareholders.

Oracle pays an yearly dividend of $2 per share, per MarketBeat. With the banal trading astatine $139.66 and a marketplace headdress of $411 billion, the full annual dividend disbursal works retired to astir $5.75 billion.

Notably, ORCL banal has accrued its yearly dividend from $0.24 per stock successful 2014 to $2 per stock successful 2026. However, this maturation was successful the pre-AI era.