ISIS poised to exploit historic US Iraq exit, terror group 'actively waiting in the gaps,' expert warns

The Islamic State is softly rebuilding arsenic the United States prepares to implicit its withdrawal from Iraq, raising fears the panic radical could exploit a information vacuum, a determination information adept warned Sunday.

With U.S. forces leaving by Sept. 30 and arsenic Baghdad tries to rein successful Iran-backed militias, Iraq could besides beryllium entering its astir unsafe play since ISIS seized Mosul successful 2014, according to counterterrorism adept Dr. Omar Mohammed.

"ISIS is waiting actively successful the gaps, arsenic it historically ever has," Mohammed, writer and researcher with the George Washington University Program connected Extremism, told Fox News Digital.

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The Islamic State is softly rebuilding arsenic the United States prepares to implicit its withdrawal from Iraq, determination analysts say. (History/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)

"The question is not whether American forces permission Iraq successful September; that timetable is set. The question is what leaves with them."

"The militias assertion the ISIS menace successful bid to support their weapons, portion ISIS recruits from the grievances that the militias create," Mohammed explained.

"That is precisely the dynamic that hollowed retired Mosul earlier 2014, erstwhile the metropolis was caught betwixt a sectarian information apparatus and the insurgency it fed."

After preparing for years, ISIS captured Mosul, astir 250 miles northbound of Baghdad, implicit a decennary ago. Iraqi information forces collapsed and fled the city.

The radical built underground networks done assassinations, extortion, intimidation and infiltration earlier launching its offensive. ISIS seized U.S.-made weapons and hundreds of millions of dollars earlier person Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi declared the group's self-proclaimed caliphate.

At the time, Mohammed launched "Mosul Eye," a blog that secretly documented beingness nether ISIS rule, exposing its operations and offering quality to U.S. forces.

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U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) has said it volition proceed moving to dismantle ISIS networks and forestall the panic group's resurgence. (AHMAD AL-RUBAYE/AFP via Getty Images)

Mohammed’s communicative is chronicled successful Mosul Eye: A Scholar's Clandestine War Against ISIS, retired July 21 from Skyhorse Publishing, with a foreword by Pope Francis and an instauration by retired Gen. David Petraeus.

Iraqi forces, backed by the U.S.-led coalition, went connected to recapture Mosul successful July 2017. When the U.S. combat ngo ended successful 2021, ISIS continued operating successful parts of Iraq and Syria.

U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) has said it volition proceed moving to dismantle ISIS networks and forestall the panic group's resurgence.

But, citing Iraqi quality estimates, Mohammed said the fig of ISIS fighters successful neighboring Syria has accrued from astir 2,000 to arsenic galore arsenic 10,000 since the illness of Bashar Assad's authorities successful 2024.

Mohammed besides said the Popular Mobilization Forces, oregon PMF, an umbrella enactment integrated into Iraq's information forces, was ne'er disbanded aft ISIS's territorial defeat.

He estimated the unit has astir 238,000 members, receives billions of dollars successful authorities backing and includes factions with adjacent ties to Iran that run extracurricular the Iraqi government's nonstop control.

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With U.S. forces leaving by Sept. 30 and arsenic Baghdad tries to rein successful Iran-backed militias, Iraq could besides beryllium entering its astir unsafe play since ISIS seized Mosul successful 2014. (REUTERS/Mohammed Ameen)

Now Baghdad is trying to bring equipped factions, including Kataib Hezbollah and Asaib Ahl al-Haq, nether afloat authorities control.

"Sept. 30 is not 1 deadline; it is two," Mohammed said, referring to the simultaneous U.S. withdrawal and the home disarmament push.

"The militias and ISIS are not abstracted stories; they are profoundly interdependent. Each actively justifies the other. Both forces thrive successful the unstable spaces the cardinal authorities cannot hold."

The U.S. withdrawal besides follows a 2024 U.S.-Iraq statement that envisioned ending the ngo successful Iraq by 2025 portion continuing enactment for anti-ISIS operations successful Syria done September 2026. Mohammed warned against repeating past complacency.

"Mosul did not autumn successful 2014 due to the fact that ISIS was strong. It fell due to the fact that everything that would person detected its strength—presence, attention, honorable reporting from the ground—had been withdrawn successful the years before, portion the world's eyes were elsewhere."

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U.S. President Donald Trump gestures toward Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi arsenic they enactment successful a bilateral gathering successful the Oval Office astatine the White House successful Washington, D.C., U.S., July 14, 2026. (Evan Vucci/Reuters)

Meanwhile, Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi’s White House gathering July 14, wherever it was announced remaining U.S. troops would permission Iraq, drew condemnation from Tehran.

According to Iran International, Ali Akbar Velayati, an advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei , called al-Zaidi's travel "regrettable" and claimed it damaged Iraq's dignity.

Mohammed said Iran's power wrong Iraq is important to Tehran aft U.S. strikes degraded parts of its proxy network.

"Iran's strategical calculation matters much present than astatine immoderate constituent successful a decennary due to the fact that Iraq is fundamentally what Iran has left," Mohammed said. "So the regime's existent fearfulness is not resurgence. It is irrelevance."

Tehran fears an Iraq wherever the authorities successfully disarms the militias, U.S. forces permission connected Baghdad's presumption alternatively than Iran's, and nary progressive information situation remains to warrant equipped groups operating extracurricular afloat authorities control, helium said.

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"That said, what happens crossed the wider portion aft September volition not beryllium decided by anyone's stated intentions oregon diplomatic promises," Mohammed added.

"I person seen what a metropolis pays erstwhile that judgement is wrong. Whether ISIS grows ample capable to frighten Iran, oregon stays conscionable ample capable to service it, volition beryllium 1 of the defining questions of the twelvemonth aft the withdrawal," helium warned.

Fox News Digital has reached retired to the White House for comment.