Gold prices are rising, but Australia’s production is dropping. What’s next?

Australia’s golden accumulation is acceptable to diminution for the 5th consecutive twelvemonth successful 2025, to 10.2 cardinal ounces (moz), representing a 0.1% alteration from 2024. The diminution bucks the planetary trend, with the remainder of the satellite expected to spot a 0.17% summation successful production.

This comes against a backdrop of soaring golden prices, which deed $4,071.38 per ounce (oz) connected 17 November 2025, up from $2590.10/oz astatine the aforesaid constituent successful 2024 – an summation of 57.19%.

A non-yielding asset, the precious metallic has agelong been considered a safe haven for investors during times of economical and geopolitical instability. Tariffs implemented by US President Donald Trump earlier successful the twelvemonth shook the planetary commercialized scene, portion conflicts successful Ukraine and Gaza and rumbling tensions crossed the Middle East person solidified gold's presumption arsenic an charismatic investment.

“The geopolitical scenery conscionable got a small spot hotter and, traditionally, this is erstwhile radical similar to crook to a haven asset,” comments Daniel Von Ahlen, expert astatine TS Lombard.

He adds that the downturn successful China’s spot marketplace and the aftermath of the Covid pandemic (which saw precocious inflation, expanding involvement rates and a displacement successful the diversification payment of bonds) person besides acted arsenic planetary drivers successful reaffirming gold’s relation arsenic a “protection successful your portfolio”.

The diminution successful golden accumulation successful Australia truthful seems surprising, but the country’s outlook tells a antithetic story. Production determination is acceptable to summation rapidly, with GlobalData, Mining Technology’s genitor company, estimating that Australia's golden accumulation volition scope 13.2moz annually by 2030.

Consequently, operators are looking to rebalance portfolios and strategically presumption themselves to conscionable the accrued request and currency successful connected awesome forecasts.

The clip is ripe, arsenic the representation is acceptable to determination from 1 of planned closures and accumulation reductions to 1 of caller projects and expansions.

Always an exceptional commodity, golden bucks the emblematic supply-demand curve.

Usually, erstwhile a commodity experiences precocious prices, accumulation increases, request is reduced and the terms corrects. However, golden producers person historically responded to terms surges by decreasing production. As much of each orebody becomes economic, operators prioritise the extraction, processing and selling of lower-grade ore, creating a backward-rising proviso curve.

This is happening astatine immoderate Australian golden mines. According to Newmont’s third-quarter results, the Boddington excavation produced 8.97 cardinal tonnes (mt) of golden but processed 9.48mt. Northern Star Resource’s (NSR) Kalgoorlie, a ace pit successful Western Australia (WA), is besides reported to person plans to proceed processing stockpiles of lower-grade ore until 2029.