AST SpaceMobile Stock Is Down 50% From Highs, and Just Raised $1 Billion to Shore Up Its Satellite Internet Plans. Here's Why I Am Still Not Buying Shares.

The archetypal nationalist offering (IPO) of Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) whitethorn person marked a near-term highest successful space-economy stocks. Many companies successful the assemblage person fallen precipitously implicit the past month, including immense 2025 victor AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS).

Now, the direct-to-device outer net concern aiming to revolutionize connectivity is raising $1 cardinal done a convertible enslaved offering, sending shares down astir 60% from highs. However, astatine a stock terms of astir $55 today, I inactive would not adhd AST SpaceMobile to my portfolio. Here's why.

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Massive accidental successful outer net

AST SpaceMobile has the audacious extremity of being the archetypal institution to afloat commercialize high-speed outer net beamed straight to smartphones. This means that, dissimilar with existent outer net services similar Starlink, a idiosyncratic volition not request a bulky outer crockery to get an net transportation to their devices. Starlink already generates implicit $10 cardinal successful revenue, truthful if a institution tin amended connected the service, you could spot an detonation successful adoption that disrupts the full wireless net sector.

Investors initially balked astatine this idea, arsenic it had ne'er been done before. However, implicit the past fewer years, AST SpaceMobile has proven that its exertion tin enactment with its monolithic BlueBird satellites. Seeing the exertion getting proven, on with the hype astir the incoming SpaceX IPO implicit the past year, sent AST SpaceMobile banal from $3 successful 2024 to a highest of implicit $100 a stock successful 2026.

Now, the aerial has begun to travel retired of the abstraction system investing theme, with AST SpaceMobile banal down to astir $55 arsenic of this writing.

Major contention and operational risks

In the past fewer years, AST SpaceMobile has begun launching its satellites into orbit, partnering with Blue Origin and its imaginable competitor, SpaceX. It has 9 operational satellites successful orbit, including 3 launched by SpaceX. Manufacturing facilities successful Texas are producing the remaining 90 oregon much satellites to make a afloat constellation successful debased Earth orbit, which AST SpaceMobile hopes volition beryllium launched successful a timely manner.

This manufacturing ramp has already led to important currency pain for AST SpaceMobile, with escaped currency travel of antagonistic $1.37 cardinal implicit the past 12 months. Getting each its satellites to orbit volition beryllium expensive, which is wherefore AST SpaceMobile conscionable raised different $1 cardinal successful a convertible enslaved offering. Plus, determination is nary warrant launches volition spell arsenic planned, with a caller Blue Origin ngo misplacing an AST SpaceMobile outer successful orbit. Blue Origin's launchpad precocious blew up, too, which volition alteration the proviso of payload capableness to nonstop objects to orbit successful a clip erstwhile determination is monolithic request successful the outer industry.