Could Nvidia Be Headed for a Crash in 2026? Here's What History Says.

• Nvidia's banal has crashed by astatine slightest 27% successful 4 of the past 7 years.

• Each of these declines was lone temporary.

• The factors down the erstwhile crashes besides don't look to beryllium concerning now.

• 10 stocks we similar amended than Nvidia ›

The bigger they come, the harder they fall. And nary institution successful the satellite is bigger than Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) close present – astatine least, based connected marketplace cap.

Over the past 10 years, Nvidia's stock terms has skyrocketed by astir 27,380%. But could the GPU banal beryllium headed for a clang successful 2026? Here's what past says.

There isn't a hard-and-fast explanation of however overmuch a banal indispensable autumn earlier the diminution qualifies arsenic a crash. However, I fishy astir radical would presumption a driblet of 20% oregon much implicit a abbreviated play arsenic a bona fide crash. Nvidia has had respective of them successful the past, including during the past 10 years, erstwhile its banal delivered a staggering 274x gain.

For example, Nvidia's stock terms sank 30% betwixt aboriginal April and aboriginal June successful 2019. This sell-off was partially owed to the institution slashing its gross guidance amid lower-than-expected income successful the information halfway and gaming markets.

Like astir stocks, Nvidia crashed successful the archetypal 4th of 2020 during the aboriginal days of the COVID-19 pandemic. Between Feb. 19, 2020, and March 16, 2020, Nvidia's shares plunged astir 38% – a steeper diminution than the S&P 500's (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) sell-off of astir 30%.

Nvidia's banal plummeted astir 27% betwixt July 8, 2024, and Aug. 7, 2024. Although investors welcomed the company's 10-for-1 banal divided successful June 2024, the excitement rapidly faded amid U.S. authorities restrictions connected AI spot exports to China.

The astir caller clang for Nvidia came conscionable past year. From Jan. 6, 2025, to April 4, 2025, the GPU maker's stock terms dropped 37%. Concerns astir the Trump administration's tariffs played a cardinal relation successful this decline.

You mightiness person noticed that Nvidia's banal has crashed successful 4 of the past 7 years. And I didn't see Nvidia's much gradual 60% sell-off during the archetypal 9 months oregon truthful of the carnivore marketplace of 2022.

The atrocious quality is that if caller past is immoderate guide, Nvidia's banal is much apt than not to clang again successful 2026. However, there's besides bully quality for investors.

For 1 thing, the factors down Nvidia's steep declines successful erstwhile years don't look to beryllium contiguous now. The information halfway marketplace remains strong. There's crushed for encouragement astir Nvidia's quality to vessel AI chips to China. The institution has managed to navigate the Trump administration's commercialized policies. COVID-19 isn't arsenic superior a occupation arsenic it was successful 2020.