“You’re Building a Google in 2 Years,” Why One Energy Analyst Warns The U.S. Grid Is Not Ready For What’s Coming

On a caller occurrence of the podcast Catalyst with Shayle Kann titled "Inside the AI powerfulness wars," vigor expert Jeremy Eliahou Ontiveros delivered a informing that reframes the AI infrastructure trade. The existent drivers of the U.S. powerfulness crisis, successful his view, are the AI labs themselves. "Power is the lifeblood of your business. Power is gross for Anthropic. If they don't person power, their concern doesn't exist," helium said.

His numbers framework the stakes. Eliahou Ontiveros said Anthropic wants to spell from 1.5 gigawatts of capableness astatine the extremity of 2025 to implicit 10 gigawatts by 2027, which means gathering much than 8 gigawatts successful 2 years. "That's the size of Google today. So you're gathering a Google successful 2 years." His conclusion: the grid cannot enactment that pace, forcing AI labs down the meter. "If you privation to beryllium successful power of your destiny, the champion option... is to simply bring your ain generation."

The Pushback: Transmission Is the Real Bottleneck

Host Shayle Kann pushed backmost connected the generation-constraint framing. He projected 10 to 15 gigawatts of state and astir 20 ELCC-adjusted gigawatts of star and batteries coming online, for a full of astir 35 gigawatts. His presumption of the chokepoint: "You tin adhd generation, but you inactive request to upgrade a substation and you request a precocious voltage transformer and that takes 3 years to order."

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Eliahou Ontiveros conceded the constituent partially, past called adjacent 35 gigawatts "rookie numbers" erstwhile the manufacture is trying to adhd 50 gigawatts of information centers each year, connected apical of different load growth. That spread betwixt what tin beryllium built and what is being demanded is wherever investors are looking for exposure.

The Generation Angle: CEG and VST

Constellation Energy (NASDAQ:CEG) closed its Calpine acquisition successful January 2026 and present operates a 55 GW fleet arsenic the largest backstage powerfulness shaper successful the world, with semipermanent PPAs signed with Microsoft, Meta, and CyrusOne. Its Q1 2026 gross jumped 63.9% twelvemonth implicit twelvemonth to $11.12 billion, elaborate successful its Q1 filing. Shares are down 28.82% twelvemonth to date, adjacent arsenic retail chatter turned bullish connected the Walmart atomic PPA announcement, with r/wallstreetbets sentiment scoring arsenic precocious arsenic 88 successful precocious June.