World cotton trade to reach 10.3m tonnes by 2028/29

Jangoulun Singsit

Mon, August 3, 2026 astatine 5:48 AM CDT 2 min read

Despite increasing supply-side challenges and geopolitical uncertainty, planetary fabric commercialized is projected to emergence from 9.4 cardinal tonnes successful the 2025/26 play to astir 10.3 cardinal tonnes by 2028/29.

The ICAC predicts a analyzable interplay betwixt production, depletion and inventories that volition signifier the outlook for planetary fabric flows.

In the 2026/27 season, satellite accumulation is acceptable to driblet by 2% to 25.8 cardinal tonnes, portion depletion remains resilient astatine astir 25.5 cardinal tonnes.

The narrowing spread betwixt proviso and usage means exporters' inventories are becoming ever much captious successful gathering planetary demand.

"Global fabric commercialized is entering a play successful which proviso constraints, inventory levels, argumentation decisions, and depletion trends volition play an progressively important role," explains Parkhi Vats, ICAC Principal Statistician and writer of the report.

"While accumulation challenges and geopolitical uncertainty stay significant, the medium-term outlook points to continued maturation successful commercialized arsenic markets respond to unchangeable depletion and shifting sourcing relationships."

Key determination fabric trends:

• Brazil is expected to clasp its presumption arsenic the world's apical fabric lint exporter successful 2025/26, acknowledgment to bumper harvests, competitory prices and expanded entree successful planetary markets. This comes adjacent arsenic reduced US availability presses buyers to look elsewhere.

• • US cotton exports dipped successful 2025/26 but are expected to rebound by 3% successful 2026/27, aided by higher ending stocks and gradual marketplace recovery.

  • • China, the largest planetary user of cotton, is expected to sharply summation its imports successful 2025/26 arsenic its request recovers from a erstwhile slide. Prolonged maturation successful China's textile and apparel output could thrust further imports, further bolstering satellite trade.

    • • Bangladesh remains a starring importer, though its depletion and imports person been deed by economical and vigor challenges.

      • • Vietnam continues to summation value arsenic a large importer, supported by its booming textile assemblage and processing commercialized partnerships.

        • • India's fabric commercialized dynamics are evolving with caller argumentation measures and increasing home consumption.

          • Tariffs, vigor costs and shipping concerns

            Beyond the measurement outlook, the ICAC flags respective hazard factors clouding the commercialized picture. These see shifting tariff policies, caller commercialized agreements, precocious vigor costs, and ongoing logistics headaches specified arsenic disruptions astir the Strait of Hormuz, a cardinal shipping way for planetary fabric flows.

            The study emphasises that arsenic planetary accumulation and depletion gully person together, immoderate unforeseen leap successful request whitethorn unit bulk exporters to pat much profoundly into their inventories.

            This "tight balance" is making planetary pricing and strategical sourcing decisions much delicate than ever.

            "World fabric commercialized to scope 10.3m tonnes by 2028/29" was primitively created and published by Just Style, a GlobalData owned brand.