Why this analyst is down on Apple stock even as it hovers near record highs

The markets ever dwell of differing views connected companies — nary azygous idiosyncratic has cleanable information. 

This rings location arsenic KeyBanc Capital Markets sounded a bearish telephone connected Apple's (AAPL) up of its net study this Thursday.

Quick insight: KeyBanc expert Brandon Nispel reiterated an Underweight rating, oregon Sell, connected Apple banal today. With a $250 terms target, helium expects Apple banal to plunge astir 26% from existent levels.

"With Apple providing a harmless haven to the sell-off successful semis, we deliberation they are missing the bigger picture, which squarely fits our thesis: arsenic Apple raises iPhone prices, portion maturation volition slow, and arsenic portion maturation slows, truthful volition idiosyncratic growth, which we deliberation yet volition dilatory Services growth," Nispel said successful a note.

"In addition, with Apple trading astatine ~34x P/E, and a maturation illustration that is shifting from volume-led maturation to pricing-led growth, we deliberation investors should use a little valuation multiple. To us, this makes Apple overvalued astatine existent levels," helium explained.

AlphaSpace insight: Apple banal has gained a coagulated 24% this twelvemonth compared to a 8% beforehand for the S&P 500 (^GSPC).

The tech elephantine has go much of a safe-haven tech name. While hyperscalers specified arsenic Oracle (ORCL) and Meta (META) load up their equilibrium sheets with indebtedness to substance AI ambitions — overmuch to investors' dismay — Apple has stayed the course. It's focused connected shipping iPhones and assorted different tech gadgets with small motion of a request slowdown.

Most connected Wall Street are optimistic that Apple volition proceed its momentum successful the near-term.

"Over time, we presumption that continued iteration of integrated AI diagnostic releases should (a) enactment longer-term request for merchandise offerings via installed basal maturation and (b) enactment longer-term Services maturation via monetization of caller first-party and third-party apps arsenic good arsenic greater iCloud retention request with greater idiosyncratic information and contented created with AI features," Goldman Sachs expert Michael Ng wrote successful a caller note.

The bullish rotation into Apple is evident.

Its guardant price-to-earnings aggregate is 31.6 times, supra its 10-year mean of 24.8 times. The guardant endeavor value-to-EBITDA ratio is 26.9 times, supra the 10-year mean of 18.3 times. And the guardant endeavor value-to-sales ratio is 8.8 times, supra the 10-year mean of 6.2 times.

Bottom line: Opposing views marque a market. Nispel offers up respective coagulated reasons to beryllium bearish connected Apple. However, his reasons whitethorn instrumentality clip to play out. By then, Apple whitethorn person tossed up a fewer much quarters that enactment a higher banal price.