Why BigBear.ai Is a Buy Now Even as Revenue Tumbles and Margins Compress

• BigBear.ai (BBAI) reported Q4 2025 gross of $27.30M, down 38% year-over-year, portion gross borderline compressed to 20.3% from 37.4%, but the institution closed its $250M Ask Sage acquisition successful December bringing a GenAI level with 100,000+ users and $25M successful yearly recurring gross increasing astatine a six-fold rate.

• BigBear.ai is positioned to payment from implicit $170B successful supplemental DHS backing and $150B successful DoD disruptive defence exertion spending, with absorption guiding 2026 gross of $135M-$165M supported by a backlog exceeding $400M.

• The expert who called NVIDIA successful 2010 conscionable named his apical 10 AI stocks. Get them present FREE.

BigBear.ai Holdings (NYSE:BBAI) trades astatine $3.49 arsenic of writing, sitting 43% beneath its 52-week precocious of $9.39 and good nether its 50-day moving mean of $4.18. Our terms people for BigBear.ai is $6.16, implying upside of 76.39% implicit the adjacent 12 months. Confidence is medium, reflecting important information gaps and a high-volatility profile.

Medium assurance reflects existent uncertainty: nary ceremonial expert statement ratings are available, guardant EPS is negative, and beta sits astatine 3.24. The risk/reward setup reflects a favorable risk/reward illustration astatine existent levels.

BBAI has declined 35.37% year-to-date and 16.9% implicit the past month, though BBAI recovered with a 2.05% summation implicit the past week. Fourth 4th net showed gross of $27.30 million, down 38% year-over-year and gross borderline compressed to 20.3% from 37.4% successful the anterior year. The banal fell 7.32% connected the time of the report.

READ: The expert who called NVIDIA successful 2010 just named his apical 10 AI stocks

Full-year 2025 was likewise challenging. FY2025 gross totaled $127.67 cardinal with an operating nonaccomplishment of $213.9 cardinal and escaped currency travel of antagonistic $46.32 million. Gross borderline compressed each quarter, finishing astatine 20.3% successful Q4 versus 37.4% a twelvemonth earlier. Revenue shortfall stemmed chiefly from little measurement connected U.S. Army programs and the lack of high-margin one-time contracts that bolstered the anterior year.

Three pillars enactment upside. First, the Ask Sage acquisition closed successful December 2025, bringing a GenAI level with 100,000+ users crossed 16,000 authorities teams and astir $25 cardinal successful yearly recurring gross increasing astatine a six-fold complaint year-over-year.

Second, CEO Kevin McAleenan cited the One Big Beautiful Bill, carrying implicit $170 cardinal successful supplemental DHS backing and $150 cardinal for DoD disruptive defence technology, arsenic a generational spending catalyst successful BigBear.ai's lane.