Why Aug. 4 Could Be a Big Day for the Stock Market

Next Tuesday, Aug. 4, is going to beryllium a large time successful the banal market. The IPO banal Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) volition study its archetypal net arsenic a nationalist company. Investors are expecting monolithic maturation and guidance from the Elon Musk enterprise, which was the largest IPO successful past earlier this year.

There is besides the flood of unlocked insider shares astir to deed the market, which could origin adjacent much volatility for shareholders. Here's the skinny connected the upcoming net report, the post-IPO dynamics, and whether SpaceX banal could beryllium a bargain for semipermanent investors today.

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SpaceX's monolithic expectations

When SpaceX reports earnings, investors volition beryllium looking astatine the continued advancement of its abstraction and artificial quality (AI) endeavors. Importantly, investors attraction astir the maturation of the Starlink outer net business, which is expected to beryllium the large currency cattle successful the adjacent fewer years. In 2025, this conception grew gross 50% twelvemonth implicit twelvemonth with awesome nett margins.

There are besides expectations of accelerated maturation from the AI infrastructure business, which generated lone $3.2 cardinal successful gross past year, including advertizing income from X, the level formerly known arsenic Twitter. With large deals signed with the likes of Anthropic and Alphabet to merchantability AI compute astatine its information centers, SpaceX should statesman to spot maturation accelerate this quarter, with expectations for adjacent greater AI gains successful the years ahead.

All told, investors are expecting second-quarter revenues of $6.9 billion, representing 68% year-over-year growth. However, for Wall Street analysts, this is wherever the maturation enactment conscionable gets started. Revenue maturation crossed the full concern is expected to beryllium astir 100% for each of 2026 and 2027, starring 2027 revenues to balloon to $80 billion, up from $18.7 cardinal successful 2025.

A lockup play and short-term volatility

Along with this net report, investors should beryllium mindful of the upcoming extremity of the SpaceX IPO lockup period. A ample chunk of shares is acceptable to beryllium unlocked connected Aug. 6, 2 days aft the report. These are insiders, not Elon Musk, who person held their shares privately for galore years and are present collectively worthy hundreds of billions of dollars.

What is apt to hap successful the months up is simply a flood of merchantability orders from these insiders, who are mostly nonrecreational investors looking to nonstop gains backmost to their partners. For a banal with a marketplace headdress of $1.5 trillion, this watercourse of merchantability orders could propulsion the stock terms down. This is what typically happens aft an IPO, and it's wherefore the mean IPO banal underperforms the marketplace successful the twelvemonth pursuing its debut.