Why 2026 is a reset year for the US food industry

Each year, I instrumentality a measurement backmost from the regular headlines to look up astatine the large forces apt to signifier the coming twelvemonth successful the nutrient manufacture successful the US. Not fleeting trends, but deeper, structural shifts – the mega-issues – that volition impact strategy, execution and outcomes.

It's important to retrieve that forecasting successful this assemblage requires humanities perspective, signifier designation and the willingness to admit erstwhile aged assumptions softly expire.

As 2026 approaches, the US packaged-food manufacture stands astatine an inflection point. The shocks of the past 5 years – persistent inflation, proviso concatenation volatility, the pandemic reset, the emergence of retailer powerfulness and shifting nutrition narratives – person created a caller operating environment.

Bottom line: the manufacture is becoming much complex, much competitory and much unforgiving than executives person faced successful their careers.

There are 5 mega-issues I judge volition chiefly specify 2026. These are not impermanent trends oregon cyclical fluctuations but structural forces each packaged-food institution needs to know.

Consumers are entering 2026 fatigued by years of elevated market prices, shrinkflation and merchandise reformulations, each accompanied by messaging that terms spikes were to beryllium mostly temporary. That alleviation has yet to materialise and shoppers are reacting by taking power of their wallets successful ways that situation nationalist brands.

“Value-first” buying has gone mainstream successful the US. This behaviour is nary longer confined to lower-income households. Across income levels, shoppers are trading down, choosing backstage label, switching retailers and scrutinising terms per-unit earlier making purchases. Even discretionary categories specified arsenic snacks, prepared meals and beverages are taxable to heightened terms sensitivity.

For manufacturers, the implications are significant. Pricing power, a superior lever for borderline absorption successful caller years, is efficaciously gone. Companies tin nary longer trust connected consumers to sorb incremental outgo increases further up the chain. In 2026, the user volition power the pricing communicative and brands that neglect to accommodate hazard measurement nonaccomplishment and losing relevance.

Executives volition request to rethink however they prosecute consumers, equilibrium promotions with marque worth and pass wherefore premium products are worthy the price. Those who disregard these shifts volition observe that adjacent the strongest brands are susceptible to measurement erosion. Companies that successfully innovate astir worth propositions, similar smaller battalion sizes, bundling strategies oregon targeted promotions, volition apt person a competitory advantage.