Who would rule Iran if the Islamic Republic falls?

As anti-regime protests proceed to dispersed crossed Iran and questions swirl astir the durability of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s rule, a cardinal question looms: Who would really instrumentality powerfulness if the Islamic Republic were to collapse?

The answer, according to determination experts and Iranian absorption figures, is acold from clear. It whitethorn beryllium little connected ideology than connected however the authorities falls and whether Iran’s information forces fracture oregon hold.

Collapse matters arsenic overmuch arsenic succession

Behnam Ben Taleblu, a elder chap astatine the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said the captious adaptable is not simply whether the authorities collapses, but however it happens.

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Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks aft casting his ballot for the statesmanlike runoff predetermination connected July 5, 2024 successful Tehran, Iran. (Majid Saeedi/Getty Images)

"Despite being ultimate leader, 1 has to wonder, particularly post-war and with constricted nationalist appearances, however overmuch Khamenei is straight governing the affairs of the country," Ben Taleblu told Fox News Digital. He warned Western governments against backing a cosmetic modulation that simply reshuffles elites.

"One happening I fearfulness is the Western temptation for a Maduro-type oregon Egypt-type model," helium said, referring to scenarios successful which entrenched information forces clasp powerfulness nether caller leadership. "That volition lone beryllium playing philharmonic chairs astatine the apical and volition not supply the Iranian radical a pathway for meaningful change."

Ben Taleblu argued that Iran’s absorption faces a logistical situation much than an ideological one: translating sustained thoroughfare protests into organized governmental powerfulness earlier information forces reassert control.

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Special forces locomotion connected the U.S. emblem during a rally commemorating International Quds Day, besides known arsenic Jerusalem Day, successful Tehran, Iran, connected March 28, 2025.  (Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

The decisive relation of information forces

Multiple experts agreed that Iran’s aboriginal hinges connected whether the regime’s coercive apparatus, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Basij militia and the regular military, remains intact.

Ben Taleblu said the cardinal origin is whether segments of the information forces defect, garbage orders oregon fragment. "What has to beryllium chipped distant is the regime’s coercive power," helium said, adding that a modulation would necessitate sustained protests, economical strikes and cracks wrong information units.

Without that, analysts warn, Iran could spot a script successful which clerical figureheads vanish but existent powerfulness remains successful the hands of equipped institutions.

"That’s the fear," Ben Taleblu said. "If the authorities plays philharmonic chairs, the thoroughfare volition not settee for it. That means a bumpier roadworthy ahead."

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Members of the Basij paramilitary unit clasp Iranian flag, Lebanese flag, emblem of Hashd Shabi, emblem of Quds force's Fatemiyoun Brigade, and a emblem of Lebanon's Hezbollah, during a rally commemorating International Quds Day, besides known arsenic the Jerusalem day, successful downtown Tehran, April 14, 2023.   (Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

 Could the subject instrumentality over?

Some analysts constituent to humanities precedents, including Egypt, wherever the subject stepped successful amid unrest. Benny Sabti, an Iran adept astatine Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, said a military-led modulation cannot beryllium ruled out, but would beryllium fraught.

"IRGC generals could theoretically effort a coup," Sabti told Fox News Digital, stressing that Iran’s subject institutions are not monolithic. He distinguished betwixt the IRGC, which helium described arsenic an ideological and asymmetric force, and the regular army, which helium said is much nonrecreational and nationally oriented.

Sabti highlighted erstwhile equipped forces main Habibollah Sayyari arsenic an illustration of a fig who has voiced constricted disapproval from wrong the system. Still, helium cautioned that disapproval unsocial does not marque a person and said charisma matters profoundly successful Iranian politics.

Iranian protests intensify for the 12th day. (The National Council of Resistance of Iran)

"There is simply a occupation of charisma," Sabti said. "In Iran, it is precise important."

Political prisoners and interior leaders

Despite planetary attraction connected jailed activists, experts are skeptical that Iran’s adjacent governmental enactment would look from wrong the country’s situation system.

Ben Taleblu said decades of repression person made it astir intolerable to cultivate governmental enactment wrong Iran. "What volition travel from wrong are the forces of revolution," helium said. "Political enactment has to beryllium built outside."

Sabti echoed that view, saying freed prisoners would apt go portion of a broader strategy alternatively than ascendant leaders.

"There won’t beryllium leaders coming retired of prison," helium said. "They volition beryllium portion of a caller system, but not charismatic leaders."

Iranian absorption person Reza Pahlavi holds a property league successful Paris connected June 23, 2025. (Joel Saget/AFP via Getty Images)

The exiled absorption and the Pahlavi question

Supporters of Reza Pahlavi accidental helium is emerging arsenic a focal constituent for absorption mobilization amid escalating unrest. On January 8, Pahlavi publically called connected Iranians to chant astatine 8 p.m. from their homes oregon successful the streets and his aides said ample crowds responded crossed aggregate cities, including Tehran, Mashhad, Isfahan, Ahvaz and Tabriz.

Those adjacent to Pahlavi picture him arsenic advocating a secular, antiauthoritarian Iran committed to quality rights, portion rejecting claims that helium is seeking to reconstruct the monarchy. Pahlavi has repeatedly said the signifier of Iran’s aboriginal strategy should beryllium decided by the radical done a escaped law process.

"My relation is not to extremity the scales successful favour of either monarchy oregon republic," Pahlavi said. "I volition stay wholly impartial successful the process to assistance guarantee that Iranians yet person the close to take freely."

Banafsheh Zand, an Iranian-American writer and exertion of the "Iran So Far Away" Substack, told Fox News Digital that Pahlavi is the lone viable unifying fig susceptible of guiding a transition, a presumption powerfully contested by others successful the diaspora.

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"The lone idiosyncratic who tin spot this done is the crown prince," Zand said, arguing that immoderate salient fig wrong Iran would beryllium swiftly eliminated by the regime. She dismissed alternate absorption figures arsenic lacking legitimacy wrong the country.

Zand said chants supporting Pahlavi during caller protests bespeak genuine sentiment, not fabrication, though specified claims are hard to independently verify amid net shutdowns and authorities censorship.

Some experts caution that portion Pahlavi has visibility successful the West and among parts of the Iranian public, helium remains a polarizing figure, peculiarly among Iranians wary of monarchy oregon outer influence.

Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo meets Maryam Rajav astatine Ashraf-3 – May 16, 2022, successful Albania. (NCRI)

Rajavi and organized absorption groups

Another long-standing absorption movement, the Mujahedin-e Khalq, led by Maryam Rajavi, has received backing from immoderate elder U.S. governmental figures from crossed the aisle implicit the years, including erstwhile Vice President Mike Pence, erstwhile Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Rudy Giuliani. 

In a connection to Fox News Digital, Rajavi said alteration "will not travel from extracurricular Iran, nor volition it beryllium delivered by the volition of overseas capitals," arguing that lone an organized, nationwide absorption tin overthrow the Islamic Republic.

Rajavi pointed to the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran and its "Resistance Units" arsenic the halfway unit down caller uprisings, claiming they person played a decisive relation successful organizing protests and confronting information forces astatine the outgo of dense casualties. She said the National Council of Resistance of Iran does not question powerfulness for itself, but alternatively proposes a six-month provisional play pursuing the regime’s overthrow, culminating successful escaped elections for a constituent assembly to draught a caller constitution for a democratic, secular republic.

NCRI President-elect Maryam Rajavi stands with erstwhile Vice President Mike Pence.  (NCRI )

"Once established, each authorization volition beryllium transferred to that Assembly, which volition some prime the provisional authorities and draught the constitution of the caller republic," Rajavi said. "Gender equality successful each its facets, the separation of religion and state, autonomy for Iranian Kurdistan and galore different urgent matters person been ratified successful item by the NCRI."

Rajavi besides cited what she described arsenic wide planetary backing for the NCRI’s platform. Critics and analysts interviewed by Fox News Digital quality the group’s level of enactment wrong Iran. Sabti said the MEK’s past of unit successful the 1980s and its rigid ideology person alienated younger Iranians.

Speaking to an NCRI league successful Washington D.C. past November, Pompeo pushed backmost against critics, stating "A thriving, democratic, fashionable authorities successful Iran—not a theocracy, not a monarchy, not an oppressive regime. This volition beryllium a large happening for the full world. We are waiting for that day, and it volition beryllium a blessing to america all."

Ben Taleblu besides warned against Western governments "playing favorites" among exiled factions, saying legitimacy indispensable yet travel from wrong Iran.

Protesters stitchery arsenic vehicles burn, amid evolving anti-government unrest, successful Tehran, Iran, successful this surface drawback obtained from a societal media video released connected Jan. 9, 2026.  (Social Media/via Reuters)

No wide successor and a agelong roadworthy ahead

Despite aggravated speculation, experts agreed connected 1 point: determination is nary wide successor waiting successful the wings.

"We are not determination yet," Sabti said, noting that Khamenei remains alive, and the information forces person not fractured.

Ben Taleblu described the infinitesimal arsenic a marathon alternatively than a sprint, informing against simplistic narratives astir authorities collapse.

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"This is astir getting the champion bridgehead to a post-Islamic Republic Iran," helium said, "so that the forces of gyration wrong tin yet go voters and take their ain fate."