White Paper: State of the Industry – February 2026

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Mon, February 2, 2026 astatine 7:00 AM CST 2 min read

The February 2026 “State of the Industry Report” — presented successful affiliation with Ryder — shares an in-depth overview crossed the trucking, maritime and intermodal markets, arsenic good arsenic what to expect successful the coming weeks. The information contained wrong the study provides breakdowns of capacity, volumes and rates.

In this report, you volition find:

• Truckload tightness is supply-driven, not demand-driven.
  Spot rates and tender rejection rates stay elevated contempt tender volumes moving good beneath year-ago levels, pointing to a meaningful contraction successful bearer supply.

• Post-holiday normalization is taking longer than usual.
  Rejection rates and spot rates person lone modestly eased from mid-January peaks, suggesting capableness continues to exit the marketplace adjacent arsenic seasonal request fades.

• Truckload request remains weak.
  Tender volumes reverted to a baseline astir 6–7% little twelvemonth implicit twelvemonth aft the holidays, confirming that caller tightening is not supported by a wide request recovery.

• Refrigerated markets experienced outsized seasonal volatility.
  Reefer rejection rates approached 20% astir Christmas, with acold upwind and protect-from-freeze request driving sharper-than-normal seasonal tightening, particularly successful the Midwest.

• Contract rates are nether unit to determination higher, but timing remains uncertain.
  While declaration rates person not yet seen sustained increases, persistent spot spot and elevated volatility summation the likelihood of complaint ostentation aboriginal successful 2026.

• The spot–contract complaint dispersed collapsed rapidly.
  Aggregated spot rates concisely moved supra declaration rates astir Christmas, marking the tightest narration since aboriginal 2022 and underscoring however rapidly marketplace conditions tin shift.

• Carrier exits are present visibly impacting work and pricing.
  Years of bearer attrition, exhausted equilibrium sheets, and the extremity of pandemic-era fiscal buffers are translating into tighter capableness and weaker route-guide compliance.

• The LTL marketplace remains uneven and selective.
  Pricing is unchangeable successful dense classes (70–85), rising successful higher classes supra 125, and compressing successful heavier little classes, with LTL apt to lag truckload tightening by respective months.

• Intermodal request and worth stay strong.
  Domestic and planetary intermodal volumes person started 2026 well, supported by beardown service, excess instrumentality availability, and a 20–30% complaint vantage versus truckload successful cardinal lanes.

• Global commercialized and macro uncertainty proceed to headdress visibility.
  Weak imports, tariff uncertainty, vas redeployments, and geopolitical risks are supporting near-term instrumentality vessel rates but adhd volatility risks done 2026 contempt structurally ample capacity.