UBS resets silver price target for rest of 2026

The revision is not a insignificant trim. It is an 80% chopped to the bank's proviso shortage estimate, and it changes the cardinal statement for holding metallic done the remainder of 2026.

What UBS changed connected metallic and wherefore the shortage revision matters

UBS analysts Wayne Gordon and Dominic Schnider published their revised metallic outlook connected May 14, cutting the bank's estimation of the 2026 planetary proviso shortage from astir 300 cardinal ounces to 60 to 70 cardinal ounces, according to Seeking Alpha. That is not a marginal revision. It is an 80% simplification successful the scarcity communicative that has supported silver's rally for the past respective years.

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Price targets were chopped crossed the committee alongside the shortage revision. The end-second-quarter 2026 people was lowered from $100 to $85, the end-September people from $95 to $85, the year-end people from $85 to $80, and the March 2027 forecast from $85 to $75, according to NAI 500. The bank's basal lawsuit is present that metallic volition "trade broadly sideways" for the remainder of the year.

UBS says 3 request headwinds are shrinking the metallic deficit

The shortage revision is driven by 3 converging forces connected the request side, each of which has been amplified by the aforesaid factor: silver's terms surge earlier successful the year.

The archetypal is photovoltaic demand. Solar cells person been the largest root of incremental metallic depletion successful caller years, but rising metallic paste costs per watt are accelerating manufacturers' displacement toward lower-silver compartment technologies. "For 2026, we expect weaker request from photovoltaics owed to elevated prices," Gordon and Schnider wrote successful the note, according to deVere Group. The 2nd is silverware and jewelry demand, wherever consumers person pulled backmost arsenic prices stay elevated. The 3rd is concern demand: full known ETF holdings person dropped by astir 70 cardinal ounces to astir 794 cardinal ounces, and nett speculative futures positions person pulled backmost to conscionable supra 100 cardinal ounces, according to Investing.com. Together, UBS estimates these request channels volition trim depletion by astir 50 cardinal ounces successful 2026.