Trump Wants Venezuela's Oil. Getting It Might Not Be So Simple

President Donald Trump has made it clear: His imaginativeness for Venezuela’s aboriginal involves the US profiting from its oil.

“We’re going to person our precise ample United States lipid companies—the biggest anyplace successful the world—go in, walk billions of dollars, hole the severely breached infrastructure, the lipid infrastructure,” the president told reporters astatine a quality league Saturday, pursuing the shocking seizure of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro and his wife.

But experts caution that a fig of realities—including planetary lipid prices and longer-term questions of stableness successful the country—are apt to marque this lipid gyration overmuch harder to execute than Trump seems to think.

"The disconnect betwixt the Trump medication and what's truly going connected successful the lipid world, and what American companies want, is huge,” says Lorne Stockman, an expert with Oil Change International, a cleanable vigor and fossil fuels probe and advocacy organization.

Venezuela sits connected immoderate of the largest lipid reserves successful the world. But accumulation of lipid determination has plummeted since the mid 1990s, aft President Hugo Chávez nationalized overmuch of the industry. The state was producing conscionable 1.3 cardinal barrels of lipid each time successful 2018, down from a precocious of much than 3 cardinal barrels each time successful the precocious 1990s. (The US, the apical shaper of crude lipid successful the world, produced an mean of 21.7 cardinal barrels each time successful 2023.) Sanctions placed connected Venezuela during the archetypal Trump administration, meanwhile, person driven accumulation adjacent further down.

Trump has repeatedly implied that freeing up each that lipid and expanding accumulation would beryllium a boon for the lipid and state industry—and that helium expects American lipid companies to instrumentality the lead. This benignant of thinking—a earthy offshoot of his “drill, baby, drill” philosophy—is emblematic for the president. One of Trump’s main critiques of the Iraq war, which helium archetypal voiced years earlier helium ran for office, was that the US did not “take the oil” from the portion to “reimburse ourselves” for the war.

The president views vigor geopolitics “almost similar the satellite is simply a Settlers of Catan board—you kidnap the president of Venezuela and, ipso facto, you present power each the oil,” says Rory Johnston, a Canadian lipid marketplace researcher. “I bash deliberation helium legitimately, to a degree, believes that. It’s not true, but I deliberation that’s an important framework for however he's justifying and driving the momentum of his policy.”

Some Trump medication policies that were intended to boost American lipid and state person really wounded the industry. US lipid producers person repeatedly voiced concerns astir however tariffs and a volatile marketplace person contributed to a melodramatic diminution successful planetary lipid prices, which fell 20 percent successful 2025—the biggest losses since 2020. Oil and state companies, similar astir large industries with a batch of investments successful analyzable carnal infrastructure, worth semipermanent governmental and fiscal stability. Any much big, unpredictable shakeups—in supply, regulatory environments, tariffs, oregon otherwise—could not travel astatine a worse clip for American oil.

“Right present the lipid market's somewhat oversupplied,” Stockman says. “That's hurting American companies. The past happening they privation is for a monolithic lipid reserve to abruptly beryllium opened up."

A fig of some short- and semipermanent decisions could impact however the US penetration of Venezuela plays retired for American oil. First there’s the question of what happens to each the lipid Venezuela is presently sitting on. Over the past fewer months, the medication has importantly ramped up sanctions and blockades connected Venezuela, creating a monolithic glut of lipid that hasn’t been capable to find its mode retired of the country.

If Trump decides to wholly assistance sanctions connected Venezuela, that surplus could participate the wider market. The astir apt buyers are US lipid refineries successful the Gulf of Mexico, which are adjacent by and equipped to grip the benignant of lipid produced successful Venezuela. This could make concern opportunities for lipid companies based there.

When it comes to processing adjacent much of Venezuela’s lipid capacity, things get trickier. While it’s tempting to gully nonstop lines betwixt the Iraq penetration and Trump’s determination against Maduro, the economical conditions for oil, some successful the US and abroad, are overmuch antithetic than they were successful 2002. Oil proviso was choky erstwhile the US invaded Iraq, and the shale revolution—which flooded the marketplace with inexpensive fracked state and lipid from American producers—was inactive respective years away. Now, with lipid prices sitting astir arsenic debased arsenic they were successful the pandemic, astir large producers are not drilling with abandon, but picking and choosing wherever they walk their money. Renewable energy, meanwhile, has go astronomically cheaper than it was successful the aboriginal 2000s.

"We are entering a satellite wherever lipid request maturation is slowing,” Stockman says. “Despite what the Trump medication wants, we are successful the midst of a transition. No substance wherever you benignant of judge the highest is, whether it's 2030 oregon beyond, the highest is coming."

It’s not wide if restarting accumulation successful Venezuela volition spot a guaranteed instrumentality connected concern for galore years. Venezuela’s lipid reserves are extra-heavy, requiring other processing—and cost—to marque the lipid airy capable for transport. Meanwhile, the infrastructure utilized to nutrient lipid successful Venezuela is falling isolated aft decades of disrepair and neglect. Significantly ramping up accumulation successful these circumstances, experts say, volition apt instrumentality years and tens of millions of dollars.

Some large American companies look poised to nett much instantly from a authorities change. Chevron, the lone institution inactive operating successful Venezuela, could person capable of a foothold to much rapidly grow production. ExxonMobil, meanwhile, has poured wealth into oilfields successful adjacent Guyana; American power successful Venezuela could beryllium adjuvant successful stabilizing those investments implicit the agelong term. But arsenic a whole, the manufacture has shown archetypal hesitation to a perchance unfastened playing tract successful Venezuela. POLITICO reported Saturday that the Trump medication has told lipid companies that it expects them to determination wealth into the country—but manufacture has been cautious.

“The infrastructure presently determination is truthful dilapidated that nary 1 astatine these companies tin adequately measure what is needed to marque it operable,” an vigor insider told Politico.

And lipid reserves successful a circumstantial portion don’t warrant a unchangeable situation for a monolithic influx of concern cash—and American lipid employees. The New York Times reported Saturday that the Trump medication has for weeks eyed Venezuelan vice president Delcy Rodríguez to regenerate Maduro, based partially connected her absorption of the lipid manufacture since she was named the nation’s lipid curate successful 2020. But it’s acold from wide if this medication volition beryllium capable to power a authorities alteration successful a mode that creates a unchangeable investing situation for large lipid companies for the adjacent fewer decades.

That archetypal program appears to beryllium unraveling already. On Saturday, Rodríguez, who has been sworn successful arsenic Venezuela's interim leader, denounced US actions determination and said that Maduro is the country’s “only president.” Sunday morning, US caput of authorities Marco Rubio said connected ABC's This Week that Rodríguez is not the “legitimate” president of Venezuela. “Ultimately, lesaidgitimacy for their strategy of authorities volition travel astir done a play of modulation and existent elections, which they person not had," Rubio said.

“There's a batch of history, and I mean that in, like, a superior H benignant of value to it, History,” says Johnston. “Lots of corruption, mediocre governance, nationalization … That is gonna instrumentality clip for companies to spot again if they don't person to. Step 1 is: Who is present president of Venezuela? We person nary thought astatine this point.”

Still, there’s a accidental immoderate companies whitethorn take to play shot successful the abbreviated term. Investors person learned that acceding to Trump’s interests tin contiguous fiscal and regulatory wins, adjacent erstwhile the marketplace is not needfully down those decisions; companies that don’t travel along, by contrast, could look consequences. On Saturday, The Wall Street Journal reported that a radical of hedge money officials and plus managers were already readying a travel to Venezuela to research concern opportunities, including ones successful energy.

“I deliberation there’s going to beryllium a batch of that,” Johnston says. “Is that model dressing for investments, oregon is that model dressing for the White House? I deliberation there's gonna beryllium a batch of radical wanting to delight Trump and say, ‘Yeah, yeah, yeah. It's our lipid manufacture now.’”