Trump’s 2026 Bull Market is Really Just an Nvidia Rally

1 hour ago 1

Rich Duprey

Tue, May 26, 2026 astatine 10:06 AM CDT 5 min read

Quick Read

  • Nvidia (NVDA) accounts for astir 20% of the S&P 500’s 9% year-to-date summation with a $5.2 trillion marketplace cap, portion lone 57% of the 503 S&P 500 stocks are successful the greenish and 61% are underperforming the index. SandDisk (SNDK) surged 522% this twelvemonth but its $298 cardinal marketplace worth generates acold little scale interaction than Nvidia’s 15% gain.

  • Nvidia’s dominance successful AI chips and accelerators is driving a concentrated rally successful mega-cap exertion stocks, masking weakness crossed broader marketplace segments arsenic ostentation remains sticky and user assurance has weakened.

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The banal marketplace keeps climbing successful 2026, and if you lone glanced astatine the headlines, you’d deliberation the U.S. system was firing connected each cylinders. S&P 500 futures pushed supra 7,540 for the archetypal clip ever implicit the Memorial Day weekend, portion the scale itself is up astir 9% twelvemonth to date. President Donald Trump has pointed to those gains repeatedly arsenic impervious his economical docket is working.

But is this truly a broad-based bull marketplace oregon the motion the system is healthy, oregon thing wholly different? When you peel backmost the layers, the reply becomes amazingly clear.

Nvidia Is Becoming the Market

The biggest crushed the S&P 500 keeps grinding upward is simple: Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) has go excessively ample to ignore.

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Carrying a marketplace valuation of much than $5.2 trillion, the AI chipmaker is the largest publically traded institution successful the world. And due to the fact that the S&P 500 is weighted by marketplace capitalization, the largest companies exert the biggest propulsion connected the index’s direction.

That favoritism matters acold much than galore investors realize. Here’s what the numbers amusement done 2026 truthful far:

Group

Average Return YTD

Largest 10 S&P 500 stocks

+7.8%

Smallest 10 S&P 500 stocks

-23.1%

In different words, a ample swath of stocks are really falling this twelvemonth by important percentages adjacent arsenic the scale keeps hitting records. Only 57% of the 503 stocks successful the S&P are successful the greenish this year, and galore conscionable hardly so. Just 197 of them are beating the index's average, meaning 61% of the components are underperforming the market.

That’s not what a steadfast broad-based rally usually looks like.

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