TotalEnergies (TTE) Posts A War-Driven Earnings Surge, But The Real Test Is What Happens To LNG Once It Fades

A Windfall Quarter, With a Weak Link

TotalEnergies SE (NYSE:TTE) reported second-quarter adjusted nett income of $6 cardinal connected July 23, 2026, up 67% year-over-year and its champion 4th successful astir 3 years.

The summation traced astir wholly to the Iran war, arsenic Hormuz disruption pushed crude and state prices to multi-year highs and lifted European refining margins portion Middle East capableness stayed offline. Refining and chemicals income roseate 362% to $1.8 billion, and exploration and accumulation net climbed 64% to $3.2 billion.

CEO Patrick Pouyanné called the strait a battleground and said closures could go normal, leaving the existent question: what the institution looks similar erstwhile that windfall fades.

LNG's Growth Half: Cronos

LNG is wherever that question starts to get answered, and the 4th unsocial was not encouraging.

The conception earned $807 million, a 22% diminution the institution attributed to trading underperformance amid level European demand, though Pouyanné said prices rallied successful July.

Then, connected July 28, 2026, TotalEnergies SE (NYSE:TTE) took a last concern determination alongside Eni connected the Cronos state tract disconnected Cyprus, each holding 50%. Gas from the field, discovered successful 2022, volition travel to Egypt for liquefaction astatine Damietta earlier export to Europe, with accumulation starting successful 2028 astatine astir 2.8 cardinal tons a year, fractional marketed by TotalEnergies, toward its 60 Mtpa LNG extremity by 2030.

LNG's Protected Half: The EU Exemption

A 2nd determination the aforesaid time addressed the different side: net TotalEnergies already has.

The Financial Times reported the EU had reversed an October determination banning EU companies from transferring Russian LNG extracurricular the bloc aft 2026. The exemption, tied to a Greek sanctions concession, lets TotalEnergies SE (NYSE:TTE) support supplying Asian buyers from its 20% Yamal LNG involvement successful Siberia if contracts predate the February 2022 penetration of Ukraine and volumes enactment wrong 2025 levels.

Pouyanné has said Yamal generates astir $400 cardinal a year, net the exemption present protects up of the EU's ain import prohibition starting astatine year-end. Most Yamal cargoes inactive went to Europe successful the archetypal fractional of 2026, 9.89 cardinal tons to EU ports against 510,000 tons to Asia.

Wall Street Remains Split

Analysts are divided connected the aforesaid question.

TD Cowen raised its terms people to $105 from $102 connected July 24, 2026, kept a Buy rating, and said anemic state trading should reverse adjacent 4th if prices hold. Mizuho initiated sum up of net with an Outperform standing and a $103 target, citing a dual-engine hydrocarbons and low-carbon strategy.