TL rates up again without help from volume

Volumes were down but freight rates continued to determination higher successful January, according to monthly information from Cass Information Systems.

Cass’ (NASDAQ: CASS) multimodal shipments scale declined 7.1% twelvemonth implicit twelvemonth (down 14.7% connected a two-year comparison) to a speechmaking not seen since 2009—the process extremity of the Global Financial Crisis. Shipments were down 2% from December connected a seasonally adjusted comp.

Severe wintertime upwind and retailers holding little inventory to commencement the twelvemonth pushed shipments little successful the month. Some less-than-truckload carriers precocious said the adverse upwind negatively impacted shipment counts by astir 3 percent points. Earlier this month, the Logistics Managers’ Index showed inventory restocking occurred astatine a complaint that was the “second-lowest for immoderate January” arsenic inventory holding costs stay high.

The Cass study said mean seasonal trends would spot the shipments scale 11% little y/y successful February, “although a rebound from the upwind could enactment volumes supra this.”

January 2026
y/y
2-year
m/m
m/m (SA)ShipmentsExpendituresTL Linehaul Index

Cass’ expenditures index, which measures full freight walk including fuel, accrued 0.6% y/y and 0.4% seasonally adjusted from December (down 3.6% sequentially without the adjustment). A two-year-stacked diminution of 3.6% was the smallest since July 2023.

Netting the alteration successful volumes from the alteration successful expenditures implies rates were apt up 8% y/y successful January. Changes successful premix tin besides change the data. (Cass nary longer publishes an inferred complaint index.)

The TL linehaul index, which tracks rates excluding substance and accessorial surcharges, accrued 1.7% from December and came successful 3.2% higher y/y. The scale has been up sequentially for 5 consecutive months. January marked 13 consecutive months of y/y increases aft 24 months of declines. The two-year-stacked speechmaking was 4% higher.

The study pointed to mediocre upwind arsenic a catalyst for rates successful the month, noting amended upwind could “lead to immoderate inclination reversion, but for February astatine least, spot rates are apt to accelerate.”

The TL linehaul scale reflects for-hire spot and declaration rates, but is “mostly comprised of declaration rates.” The study acknowledged a changing market: “anecdotally we perceive astir much shippers initiating one-year bids, suggesting question successful the rhythm beyond conscionable upwind effects.”

“Fleets are getting excited that the long-awaited betterment is here,” the study said. “Even 2% declaration complaint increases are a alleviation aft 4 years of thing oregon worse. While near-term reversion from the upwind whitethorn dilatory the trend, we expect tighter capableness to pb to mean truckload complaint increases successful 2026.”