Thomas Richmond
Tue, July 28, 2026 astatine 12:28 PM CDT 3 min read
Quick Read
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XOM's 43-year dividend maturation streak, a $20B buyback, and an 84.5% Polymarket probability of different bushed marque it a compelling July 31 net play.
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Chevron (CVX) trades astatine a P/E of 32 with antagonistic escaped currency flow, portion ConocoPhillips (COP) pays a $0.84 quarterly dividend versus XOM's $1.03.
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Strip non-cash derivative losses and underlying Q1 net roseate from $7.58B to $8.77B, making the header GAAP income driblet misleading.
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Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) enters its July 31 net study with 43 consecutive years of dividend growth and a $20 cardinal yearly buyback program. Strong accumulation from Guyana and the Permian, combined with higher lipid prices during Q2, could springiness the vigor elephantine different accidental to widen its four-quarter earnings-beat streak.
Higher Oil Prices Could Drive Another Earnings Beat
ExxonMobil has beaten EPS 4 consecutive quarters. Q1 2026 adjusted EPS came successful astatine $1.16 versus $1.0074, a 15.15% beat, and Polymarket puts an 84.5% probability connected different bushed connected July 31. Golden Pass LNG Train 1 loaded its archetypal cargo successful April 2026, Guyana output crossed 900,000 gross barrels per day, and the Permian deed a grounds 1.8M boed successful Q4 2025. WTI traded betwixt $80 and $114 during Q2, providing a beardown upstream backdrop.
A 43-Year Dividend Growth Streak Meets a $20 Billion Buyback
Exxon pays a 2.65% dividend yield, and the past hike (4% announced successful Q3 2025) extended the 43-year maturation streak. Layer the $20 cardinal 2026 repurchase programme (with $4.9 cardinal executed successful Q1) connected apical of the dividend, and full shareholder output lands overmuch higher than the disposable dividend yield.
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Exxon's Balance Sheet Supports the Valuation
XOM trades astatine a P/E of 23, an EV/EBITDA of 10.71, and a Price/Book of 2.51. These don't look similar unreasonable multiples for a concern that generated $26.13 cardinal successful escaped currency travel successful 2025 with Debt/Equity of conscionable 0.168 and involvement sum of 56.28x. The stock's beta sits astatine conscionable 0.162, making it a low-volatility banal comparative to the broader vigor sector.
Exxon Looks Stronger Than Chevron connected Cash Flow and Valuation
Chevron (NYSE:CVX) trades astatine a P/E of 32 (versus XOM's 23), rides a shorter 39-year dividend streak, and reported negative $1.55 cardinal of escaped currency flow successful Q1 2026 arsenic capex outran operating cash.

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