The ‘Michael Burry Bear Case’ for AI Chips Is Back, and This GPU Math Problem Won’t Go Away

Omor Ibne Ehsan

Thu, July 2, 2026 astatine 9:13 AM CDT 4 min read

Quick Read

• NVDA's $119B successful proviso commitments and AMD's trailing P/E of 192 some unravel if GPU depreciation schedules shorten by conscionable a mates of years.

• TSM posted 30% gross growth, but NKE's China income dropped 17% currency-neutral, signaling the user yet backing AI's capex question is wobbling.

• Prediction markets springiness NVDA lone 50-50 likelihood of closing supra $200 by July, a assemblage that has been close connected NVDA 74% of the time.

• Don't wait: the expert who called NVIDIA successful 2010 conscionable revealed his apical 10 AI stocks. See the afloat database FREE now.

On CNBC's Closing Bell Overtime the evening of June 30, 2026, a impermanent said the quiescent portion retired large astir AI hardware: "the AI representation hardware nutrient concatenation is inactive trading arsenic if there's nary choice... there's inactive reckonings to beryllium had." The bull lawsuit for the shovels successful the AI golden unreserved rests connected assumptions astir however agelong those shovels last. That presumption is cracking.

The impermanent framed the halfway occupation arsenic a maturity mismatch. "If you're going to contented bonds that are 10 years out... and the depreciation of the plus is 5 years, well, what bash you do?" He tagged it arsenic "a Michael Burry carnivore lawsuit for a small while." Hyperscalers presently depreciate GPUs implicit astir 5 to six years. Shorten that utile beingness to thing much realistic, and near-term operating income astatine the buyers falls portion the capex spread deepens.

NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) disclosed full supply-related commitments of $119 cardinal and multi-year unreality work commitments of $30.0 cardinal successful its astir caller 10-Q. Roughly 50% of Data Center gross flows from hyperscalers. Rewrite their depreciation schedules downward and some sides of that commercialized tighten simultaneously.

The nutrient concatenation that keeps buying its ain canine nutrient

NVIDIA's Q1 FY27 gross printed astatine $81.61 billion, up 85.2% twelvemonth implicit year, with Data Center astatine $75.25 billion, up 92%. The banal trades astatine a guardant P/E of 23. That aggregate depends wholly connected the trailing P/E is 31 and each guardant aggregate depends connected hyperscaler capex staying voracious.

Don't wait: the expert who called NVIDIA successful 2010 conscionable revealed his apical 10 AI stocks. See the afloat database FREE now.

AMD (NASDAQ:AMD) makes the representation much interesting. Q1 2026 gross deed $10.25 billion, up 37.9%, with a Meta concern to deploy up to 6 gigawatts of AMD Instinct GPUs. The banal is up 171.25% twelvemonth to day and trades astatine a trailing P/E of 192x. On Reddit, 1 of the higher-engagement threads connected the sanction was titled "AMD is virtually backing a startup with $350M conscionable truthful they tin bargain AMD chips" (1,634 upvotes). The circularity anxiousness is real.