Tesla vs. Rivian: Which Stock Will Outperform The Market In 2026

2 hours ago 1

Vandita Jadeja

Mon, March 23, 2026 astatine 12:04 PM CDT 5 min read

Tesla (TSLA) reported Q4 gross borderline enlargement to 20.1% contempt a 16% transportation decline, with vigor conception gross up 25% year-over-year to $3.837B and FSD subscriptions reaching 1.1M (+38% year-over-year). Rivian (RIVN) achieved its archetypal afloat twelvemonth of affirmative gross nett with bundle and services gross surging 109% year-over-year to $447M, portion automotive gross borderline per conveyance improved by implicit $7,200 year-over-year contempt a 25.8% gross decline.
Tesla’s 2026 maturation hinges connected unproven robotaxi timelines with lone 12.5% likelihood of California motorboat by June 2026, portion Rivian’s endurance depends connected the R2 mass-market ramp opening Q2 2026 with guidance for 62,000-67,000 deliveries against a 34.5% bankruptcy hazard probability earlier 2027.
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Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN) closed 2025 with net that archer precise antithetic stories. Tesla is simply a profitable, diversifying exertion institution navigating a transportation slump. Rivian is simply a pre-scale shaper that conscionable crossed its archetypal afloat twelvemonth of affirmative gross profit, betting its aboriginal connected a mass-market motorboat and a deepening bundle concern with Volkswagen.

Tesla Issues Recall Affecting A Million Vehicles Over Power Window Issue

Tesla's Q4 was a survey successful contrasts. Vehicle deliveries fell 16% year-over-year to 418,227 units, yet gross borderline expanded 386 ground points to 20.1%. The vigor conception posted grounds Q4 deployments of 14.2 GWh and gross of $3.837 billion, up 25% year-over-year. Full self-driving subscriptions reached 1.1 million, increasing 38% year-over-year. Vehicle measurement is shrinking, but Tesla is extracting much borderline per car and gathering gross streams that don't beryllium connected selling different Model Y.

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Rivian's 4th was messier but meaningful. Software and services gross surged 109% year-over-year to $447 million, powered astir wholly by the Volkswagen associated venture. Automotive gross dropped 45% year-over-year to $839 cardinal arsenic regulatory recognition income collapsed from $299 cardinal to $29 cardinal and the national EV taxation recognition expired September 30. The header gross diminution of 25.8% year-over-year obscures a institution softly improving its outgo structure.

Metric

Tesla Q4 2025

Rivian Q4 2025

Revenue	$24.9B	$1.3B
Gross Margin	20.1%	~9.3%
Free Cash Flow	$1.42B	-$1.14B
Cash connected Hand	$44.1B	$3.6B
2026 Key Catalyst	Robotaxi, Cybercab, Optimus	R2 motorboat Q2 2026

Tesla's 2026 roadmap includes Cybercab measurement production, Tesla Semi, Megapack 3, and Optimus Gen 3. Robotaxi enlargement is planned for Dallas, Houston, Phoenix, Miami, Orlando, Tampa, and Las Vegas successful H1 2026.

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