Survey: Nearly 70% of Individual Investors Expect Stock Market Gains in 2026, Despite Half Citing Recession Risk

Despite 3 consecutive years of 15%+ gains from the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), astir investors judge the bully times aren't implicit yet.

The Motley Fool's 2026 Investor Outlook and Predictions Report shows that the bulk of investors expect further gains successful U.S. stocks this year, powered again by enthusiasm astir artificial quality (AI) stocks.

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Expectations for affirmative returns successful the caller twelvemonth aren't unusual. What was a spot surprising, however, was however fewer radical expected immoderate benignant of important diminution on the way. This comes adjacent though a ample fig of respondents cited recession and ostentation hazard arsenic cardinal factors to ticker successful the caller year.

Let's instrumentality a look astatine immoderate of the survey's large findings and however you tin usage them to signifier your ain plans for 2026.

The report's cardinal takeaway shows that investors person bullish, albeit comparatively modest, expectations for the existent year.

In all, astir 68% of investors expect the marketplace to nutrient affirmative returns successful 2026. Those successful the younger Gen Z and millennial generations could assistance thrust this growth. Roughly 68% and 64% of these groups, respectively, program to put much this year.

However, astir investors don't expect the large double-digit returns that the equity markets person seen implicit the past fewer years. Only 11% of those surveyed expect to spot a 4th consecutive twelvemonth of 10%+ returns. The bulk of responders, astir 57% successful total, deliberation stocks volition instrumentality betwixt 4% and 9% this year.

Overall, investors stay successful a bullish mood, but expectations are comparatively contained. As geopolitical and affordability concerns loom implicit a U.S. system that inactive appears to beryllium successful comparatively bully shape, determination could beryllium a content that AI-driven marketplace gains could commencement to moderate.

Historically, the marketplace experiences a 10% correction astir erstwhile each 2 to 3 years.

The past fewer times this occurred were:

• 2025 (the lead-up to "Liberation Day" tariffs)

• 2022 (inflation-driven carnivore market)

• 2020 (COVID-19 pandemic)

• 2018 (fear of a imaginable Europe recession)

Survey respondents don't look peculiarly acrophobic that we'll acquisition different 1 successful 2026. Only 3% of those asked deliberation we'll spot a correction this year.