Sugar Prices Slip as Crude Oil Plunges

May NY satellite sweetener #11 (SBK26) contiguous is down -0.15 (-0.96%), and May London ICE achromatic sweetener #5 (SWK26) is down -1.80 (-0.40%).

Today's plunge successful crude lipid prices (CLK26) by much than -7% has sparked agelong liquidation successful sweetener futures.  The weakness successful crude prices undercuts ethanol prices and whitethorn promote the world's sweetener mills to alteration ethanol accumulation and boost sweetener output.

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Sugar prices inactive person immoderate enactment amid proviso disruptions from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.  According to Covrig Analytics, the closure of the strait has curbed astir 6% of the world's sweetener trade, constraining refined sweetener output.

Earlier this month, sweetener prices plunged to 5.5-year nearest-futures lows connected interest that a planetary sweetener surplus volition persist.  On February 11, analysts from sweetener trader Czarnikow said they expect a planetary sweetener surplus of 3.4 MMT successful the 2026/27 harvest year, pursuing an 8.3 MMT surplus successful 2025/26.   Also, Green Pool Commodity Specialists said connected January 29 that they expect a 2.74 MMT planetary sweetener surplus for 2025/26 and a 156,000 MT surplus for 2026/27.  Meanwhile, StoneX said February 13 that it expects a planetary sweetener surplus of 2.9 MMT successful 2025/26.

The International Sugar Organization (ISO) connected February 27 forecasted a +1.22 MMT (million metric ton) sweetener surplus successful 2025-26, pursuing a -3.46 MMT shortage successful 2024-25.  ISO said the surplus is being driven by accrued sweetener accumulation successful India, Thailand, and Pakistan.  ISO is forecasting a +3.0% y/y emergence successful planetary sweetener accumulation to 181.3 cardinal MMT successful 2025-26.

Signs of little sweetener output successful Brazil are supportive of sweetener prices, aft Unica connected February 18 reported that sweetener accumulation successful Brazil's Center-South successful the 2nd fractional of January fell by -36% y/y to lone 5,000 MT.  However, cumulative 2025-26 Center-South sweetener output done January roseate +0.9% y/y to 40.24 MMT.

The Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) reported past Tuesday that India's 2025-26 sweetener output from Oct 1-Mar 15 was up +10.5% y/y to 26.2 MMT.  On March 11, the ISMA projected India's 2025/26 sweetener accumulation astatine 29.3 MMT, up 12% y/y, beneath an earlier projection of 30.95 MMT.  The ISMA besides chopped its estimation for sweetener utilized for ethanol accumulation successful India to 3.4 MMT from a July forecast of 5 MMT, which whitethorn let India to boost its sweetener exports.  India is the world's second-largest sweetener producer.