Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq plunge, oil surges as fresh strikes intensify Iran conflict

^GSPC ^DJI ^IXIC

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  US banal marketplace sells disconnected connected Iran struggle escalation

  The US banal marketplace slid profoundly into the reddish connected Tuesday aft the US and Israel began a caller barrage of attacks against Iran, and a widening struggle turned up nerves astir a drawn-out determination war.

  The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led the retreat, losing astir 1.9%, portion the S&P 500 (^GSPC) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) saw somewhat leaner drops of 1.6% and 1.7%, respectively, arsenic lipid prices rallied further connected concerns astir blocked proviso and, increasingly, threats to production.

  SNP - Free Realtime Quote • USD

  6,738.94 -142.68 (-2.07%)

  As of 9:50:05 AM EST. Market Open.

  ^GSPC ^DJI ^IXIC

  Crude prices (BZ=F, CL=F) began to ascent again arsenic cardinal proviso routes stay blocked and Iranian attacks widened retired to see Middle East vigor infrastructure, gaining implicit 6% arsenic ostentation worries grew. Meanwhile, golden (GC=F) prices turned little aft a four-day rally, slipping 2%.

  In the firm world, shares successful Target (TGT) roseate successful premarket aft the retail elephantine posted lackluster vacation and full-year income that met Wall Street estimates.

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  Korean stocks vessel by astir since 2020, starring US chips down

  It's a oversea of reddish successful overseas banal markets and overseas exchange-land this morning, arsenic my workfellow Jake Conley has been writing. Investors pricing successful higher vigor costs, little hazard appetite, and a much costly dollar are unwinding galore of the astir profitable trades of the past year.

  After a decent drubbing connected Friday and being closed for a vacation Monday, the iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY) is sinking 12% this greeting — the astir since 2020. (It has inactive tripled from the April 2025 post-Liberation Day lows.)

  Korea is heavy leveraged to the spot trade, which is besides getting repriced (to the downside) this morning.

  Micron (MU), Sandisk (SNDK), and Lumentime (LITE) are disconnected 6%, portion Western Digital (WDC), ASML (ASML), and Taiwan Semi (TSM) are down 5%.

  Having said that, the Philly semiconductor scale (SOX) is acceptable to unfastened astir 8% from its grounds high, conscionable supra the 50-day moving mean astatine the 336 level. That's 1 to ticker arsenic the time develops.

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  The currency marketplace is pricing successful a supply-side ostentation shock

  Global currencies swung wide this greeting arsenic overseas speech traders priced successful the effects of what has go an progressively wide supply-side inflationary shock.

  The dollar is gaining not lone connected an scale ground but against a handbasket of different currencies arsenic the marketplace assesses that the US is little exposed to nonstop carnal proviso disruption, though not immune.

  Meanwhile, Europe's currencies are taking the brunt of the stroke successful the overseas speech market. Europe remains heavy reliant connected imported liquefied earthy state (LNG), including important flows from Qatar, and the country's accumulation stoppage of LNG has sent European Title Transfer Facility (TTF) state prices (TTF=F) soaring by much than 85% implicit the past 5 sessions.

  Unlike a emblematic geopolitical daze that drives flows into authorities bonds, this occurrence has seen yields emergence arsenic traders terms successful higher ostentation and less cardinal slope complaint cuts.

  Emerging marketplace currencies tied to vigor imports are besides nether pressure. Egypt’s lb breached a cardinal sympathy level of 50 per dollar arsenic investors brace for prolonged determination instability, and predictions of a South African involvement complaint hike aboriginal this period are surging aft predictions arsenic precocious arsenic Friday that South Africa's cardinal slope would chopped rates astatine its upcoming March meeting.

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  Best Buy posts same-store income diminution arsenic user request softened successful cardinal vacation quarter

  Best Buy (BBY) banal jumped arsenic overmuch arsenic 12% successful premarket trading contempt the retailer reporting a astonishment income slump successful its cardinal vacation buying season.

  Same-store income declined 0.8% successful the 4th quarter, the institution said Tuesday. Wall Street had hoped for a 0.2% summation aft 2 consecutive quarters of affirmative growth.

  "Our information sources amusement our wide marketplace stock was astatine slightest flat, pointing to somewhat softer lawsuit request for our manufacture during the vacation quarter," Best Buy CEO Corie Barry said successful the release.

  Best Buy expects archetypal 4th same-store income to instrumentality to growth, rising 1%.

  Revenue for the 4th fourth totaled $13.81 billion, little than the $13.88 cardinal Wall Street had expected, per Bloomberg statement data. Adjusted net per stock came successful higher astatine $2.61, much than the $2.46 the Street predicted. Best Buy banal is down much than 30% successful the past year.

  For the afloat year, gross came successful astatine $41.69 billion, conscionable beneath the $41.76 cardinal Wall Street predicted. Adjusted net per stock came successful astatine $6.43, $0.12 supra Wall Street's estimates for $6.31.

  For the year, same-store income grew 0.5%, little than the 0.9% summation Wall Street was looking for.

• Oil rally builds arsenic ‘staggering’ Middle East warfare jolts energy

  Bloomberg reports:

  NY Mercantile - Delayed Quote • USD

  77.23 +6.00 (+8.42%)

  As of 9:40:06 AM EST. Market Open.

  Read much here.

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  Bottom enactment connected Target net that conscionable hit

  There volition beryllium a batch of pomp and condition for Target (TGT) today. At the aforesaid clip arsenic the retailer puts retired its net release, it’s holding its yearly capitalist time successful its backyard of Minneapolis.

  I deliberation the institution — present led by a caller CEO, Michael Fiddelke, and an astir wholly caller enactment squad — volition hype its store concern plans and accidental that 2025 results volition beryllium a low-water mark.

  Execs volition astir apt usage today’s net bushed and telephone retired of affirmative income successful February to assistance their transportation to Wall Street (and investors much broadly, who person been burned severely by the banal successful the past 5 years).

  All of that said, I americium not taking the bait, and you shouldn’t instrumentality it either. Target should enactment successful the punishment container and is simply a "prove it" stock. That means until it starts stacking affirmative quarters, you conscionable don’t bargain the banal and proceed to favour Walmart (WMT) oregon Costco (COST) connected pullbacks.

  Here’s what I didn’t similar from Target’s 4th to underscore my point:

• The market's 3 biggest questions astir the Iran conflict

  Markets provided an archetypal effect to the warfare successful Iran, with the interaction connected lipid prices and ostentation astatine the forefront, writes Yahoo Finance's Hamza Shaban.

  He writes:

  Here are the 3 biggest questions about the Iran conflict.

• Target income autumn 2.5% during vacation 4th to headdress 'challenging' 2025

  Shares successful Target (TGT) popped earlier the doorbell aft the retail giant's Q4 and 2025 income dropped, but met Wall Street expectations.

  Yahoo Finance's Brooke DiPalma reports:

  Read much here.

• Treasury yields emergence arsenic Iran warfare fuels planetary enslaved rout

  US Treasurys followed different enslaved markets lower, with traders retreating from bets for interest-rate cuts successful effect to the perchance inflationary interaction of an escalating Iran war.

  Bloomberg reports:

  Read much here.

• Trump vows ‘Whatever it takes’ connected Iran arsenic struggle widens

  From Bloomberg:

  ... The Trump medication volition soon rotation retired a programme to assistance mitigate rising vigor costs, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters successful Washington earlier heading into a briefing for US lawmakers. He said the run would lone intensify.

  “I’m not going to springiness distant the details of our tactical efforts, but the hardest hits are yet to travel from the US military,” Rubio said.

  Read much here.

• Qatar’s LNG blackout conscionable broke the planetary state market

  Iranian drone strikes forced QatarEnergy to halt accumulation astatine Ras Laffan and Mesaieed, efficaciously taking one-fifth of planetary LNG export capableness offline successful a azygous geopolitical event.

  From Oilprice.com:

  Read much here.

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  It could beryllium worse for lipid prices

  As I mentioned successful a anterior post, keeping marketplace past successful caput during warfare situations is important.

  While the spike successful lipid (BZ=F, CL=F) prices looks achy (and it is), we haven't seen a worst-case scenario.

  That was called retired successful this illustration Deutsche Bank:

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  Continued weakness successful Ford & General Motors pre-market

  You whitethorn beryllium wondering wherefore we are seeing Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) sell-off much than the broader marketplace this week. Sure, determination is the reasoning that with stocks down and with america astatine war, radical enactment disconnected buying the much costly cars and trucks each automaker continues to hawk.

  But support this mind. Both automakers person made a hard pivot distant from electrical vehicles and rider cars, each being perfect successful an situation of sustained higher state prices (which we whitethorn beryllium looking at). Ford particularly is truly playing up its pickup motortruck bonafides.

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  Why the marketplace is selling off, time two

  Another surge successful lipid prices (CL=F, BZ=F) isn't helping marketplace sentiment this morning.

  But retrieve successful this backdrop, markets volition thin to instrumentality their archetypal cues from the leaders moving constituent connected the warfare (Trump, Hegseth, and truthful on)

  Helpful appraisal of this from Mizuho today:

  SNP - Free Realtime Quote • USD

  6,738.94 -142.68 (-2.07%)

  As of 9:50:05 AM EST. Market Open.

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  Bank stocks and the Iran conflict

  Good constituent by JP Morgan this greeting connected slope stocks: Look for a archetypal 4th assistance to banks' trading concern from accrued volatility crossed galore markets from the warfare connected Iran

  JPMorgan says (emphasis added):

  Their apical US names to commercialized disconnected this imaginable see Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS), fixed their outsized trading operations.

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  Goldman Sachs looks retired for immoderate oil-driven inflation

  Goldman Sachs is calling attraction to a pickup successful ostentation coming soon, fixed that lipid prices are surging.

  Its squad notes that a 10% summation successful crude lipid prices typically raises "core" ostentation — which strips retired volatile vigor and nutrient prices — by 4 ground points and header ostentation by 20-30 ground points.

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  Reminder connected marketplace pullbacks

  It's bully successful these moments, erstwhile the marketplace has been punched successful the face, to level-set a bit.

  Pullbacks connected processing warfare quality are normal. But conscionable support this illustration from Keith Lerner astatine Truist successful mind.

  Since 2009, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) has seen much than 30 pullbacks of greater than 5%. That suggests stocks tin extremity up resilient successful the look of atrocious news.

• Oil rally builds arsenic ‘staggering’ Middle East War jolts Energy

  Crude lipid futures (BZ=F, CL=F) continued to emergence connected Tuesday arsenic caller Mideast strikes spurred concerns that hostilities could disrupt cardinal proviso routes and reignite ostentation pressures.

  Bloomberg reports:

  Read much here.

• Korean stocks endure worst sell-off since 2024 connected Iran warfare risks

  Bloomberg reports:

  Read much here.

• Gold rises for fifth-straight time arsenic investors determination to risk-off assets

  Bloomberg reports:

  Read much here.