SpaceX Just Guided for A $100 Billion Run Rate by December and $1 Trillion of Revenue by 2030. Here's Why the Stock Is Getting Crushed Anyway

Space Exploration Technologies Corp (NASDAQ:SPCX) reported beardown gross maturation successful the 2nd 4th of the year, and lofty guardant guidance.

But the banal traded astir 11.2% little successful pre-market hours, arsenic of 8:05 a.m. ET, with investors disquieted astir the company's hefty spending plans.

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Total gross of implicit $7.8 cardinal grew astir 92% twelvemonth implicit twelvemonth and astir 66% from the archetypal quarter. The institution generated an operating nonaccomplishment of $143 million, a important betterment from the anterior 4th and year-over-year. Segment-adjusted EBITDA besides astir tripled from a twelvemonth ago.

CEO Elon Musk, connected a league call, told Wall Street analysts that the institution expects to scope a $100 cardinal yearly gross tally complaint by December of this twelvemonth and $1 trillion of yearly gross by 2030, a twelvemonth up of the company's erstwhile guidance.

In fact, Musk said there's a "non-zero accidental of that being successful 2029."

Even astatine SpaceX's $1.77 trillion marketplace cap, this guidance, if achievable, makes the banal look rather appealing. Here's wherefore it's getting crushed anyway.

Image source: The White House.

Capex soars

During the quarter, superior expenditures soared to astir $18.4 billion, up from astir $10 cardinal and $2.8 cardinal successful the erstwhile 4th and 2nd 4th of 2025, respectively.

SpaceX's CFO Bret Johnsen besides told analysts that they tin expect capex to beryllium astatine akin levels successful the adjacent 2 quarters.

Johnsen said that capex for artificial quality compute is seeing little than a one-year payback. SpaceX has already announced monolithic deals with Anthropic and Google connected this front, generating implicit $2 cardinal per period successful revenue.

So, if the institution tin proceed to standard its information halfway compute business, it makes it easier to spot however SpaceX volition marque these elephantine gross leaps implicit the adjacent respective months and years.

Musk besides reiterated that orbital information centers could beryllium person than radical think. He said the Starmind AI satellites, which volition beryllium built with Nvidia's Vera Rubin chips, are expected to statesman launching adjacent year.

This could greatly grow SpaceX's compute capacity, which Musk already expects to beryllium 2 gigawatts (GW) by the extremity of this twelvemonth and person to 10 GW by the extremity of 2027. The higher the company's capacity, the faster it volition turn gross by renting it to companies moving AI solutions and ample connection models.