SpaceX Delayed Its Starship Launch and the Stock Fell Below Its IPO Price. One of Those Things Matters. The Other Doesn't.

3 weeks ago 7

Matt Frankel, CFP®, The Motley Fool

Fri, July 17, 2026 astatine 9:35 AM CDT 4 min read

Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX), amended known arsenic SpaceX, completed the largest IPO successful past earlier this year, and the archetypal reception was a affirmative one. However, shares person been nether unit precocious and are present trading beneath their $135 IPO price.

The archetypal crushed for the banal cooling disconnected was simply the post-IPO hype moving retired of steam, but the latest determination tin beryllium attributed to the hold of the company's much-anticipated Starship launch. But however overmuch does this hold impact the concern thesis?

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Why the Starship hold is (mostly) sound

To beryllium perfectly clear, Starship is a large portion of the semipermanent concern thesis. Once the Starship rocket (which is overmuch larger than SpaceX's existent motorboat vehicle) reaches the commercialized formation stage, it should dramatically amended mass-to-orbit economics and acceptable the company's motorboat concern connected a wide way to profitability. Longer-term, this is simply a important constituent of Elon Musk's program to enactment information centers into orbit.

Man looking astatine laptop with confused expression.

However, a azygous hold similar this does thing to alteration the thesis. In fact, erstwhile it comes to improvement programs similar Starship, delays, cancellations, and adjacent outright failures are modular occurrences. As an illustration from a competitor, Rocket Lab's (NASDAQ: RKLB) highly anticipated Neutron rocket was initially planned to motorboat successful precocious 2024 -- and we're inactive waiting. Delays are an expected portion of a liable engineering approach.

In addition, SpaceX's near-term gross (and profit) operator is Starlink, not the motorboat program. Starlink and the monolithic AI compute deals the institution has signed precocious substance astir implicit the adjacent mates of years, and they're doing conscionable fine. A week-long (or adjacent a month-long) hold successful the Starship timetable does thing to alteration the addressable marketplace accidental oregon the company's competitory advantages. There's simply thing other similar Starship.

What does substance to the concern thesis?

It's important to instrumentality a measurement backmost and see the astir important drivers of semipermanent worth for SpaceX:

Starlink's maturation and currency flow.
The company's caller and increasing AI compute business, which has deals with Anthropic, Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL)(NASDAQ: GOOG), and more.
SpaceX's motorboat dominance. Most payloads launched into orbit contiguous are carried by SpaceX rockets.
Optionality for Starship (things similar AI information centers successful orbit and eventual interplanetary transport).