RXO sees TL spot market surge further in Q2

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Freight broker RXO said Wednesday that its truckload spot complaint scale reached a four-year precocious successful the archetypal quarter, with expectations for further increases successful the 2nd quarter. Even with lone tepid freight demand, capableness attrition stemming from stricter regulatory oversight of the operator excavation is pushing rates materially higher.

RXO’s (NYSE: RXO) Curve Report showed TL spot rates were up 16.5% twelvemonth implicit twelvemonth successful the archetypal 4th aft logging a 5.2% maturation complaint successful the 4th quarter. (The dataset captures linehaul rates, excluding substance surcharges.) This was the highest maturation complaint since the 2021 3rd quarter.

The quarterly outlook calls for the scale to grounds a larger maturation complaint during the 2nd quarter.

“Q1 is typically the slowest shipping play of the year, yet industry-wide tender rejections were astatine their highest levels since 2022 and complaint volatility outpaced seasonality,” the study said. “That inclination continues successful Q2, and arsenic mean summertime shipping seasonality hits, it isn’t apt to dilatory down anytime soon.”

Outbound Tender Rejection Index (OTRI.USA) for 2026 (blue shaded area), 2025 (yellow line), 2024 (green line) and 2023 (pink line). A proxy for motortruck capacity, the tender rejection scale shows the fig of loads being rejected by carriers. Current tender rejections amusement a choky truckload market.</em> <em>To larn much astir SONAR, <a href="https://gosonar.com/" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" data-ylk="slk:click here;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas" data-yga="{"yLinkElement":"context_link","yModuleName":"content-canvas","yLinkText":"click here"}" class="link ">click here</a>.</em>

National Truckload Index (linehaul lone – NTIL.USA) <em>for 2026 (blue shaded area), 2025 (yellow line), 2024 (green line) and 2023 (pink line)</em>. The NTIL is based connected an mean of booked spot adust van loads from 250,000 lanes. The NTIL is simply a seven-day moving mean of linehaul spot rates excluding fuel. Spot rates stepped higher done highest play arsenic regulatory constraints connected the operator excavation took hold.</em> <em>Rates stay importantly higher connected a y/y comparison</em> <em>in May.</em>

The Charlotte, North Carolina-based institution said declaration rates were up 2.4% y/y successful the archetypal quarter. Elevated spot rates are bleeding done to contractual complaint negotiations.

“However, with spot rates consistently outpacing seasonal baselines, shippers are bracing for a highly altered freight situation heading into the engaged summertime months and the 2nd fractional of 2026.”

Public carriers raised full-year declaration complaint expectations during the first-quarter net season. Many were expecting low- to mid-single-digit complaint increases entering the year, but present judge marketplace dynamics enactment increases successful the mid- to high-single digits. Some carriers besides flagged the likelihood of double-digit complaint hikes for transactional-oriented customers that played the spot marketplace during the downturn.

J.B. Hunt (NASDAQ: JBHT) said astatine an capitalist league past week that it believes declaration rates (non-dedicated) volition ascent 20% implicit the adjacent 2 years arsenic heightened regularisation and higher substance costs purge low-cost operators from the market.

“We’re seeing important linehaul and declaration complaint increases, contempt muted shipper demand,” said Jared Weisfeld, main strategy serviceman astatine RXO. “Carriers stay nether immense outgo pressure, driven by expanding labour expenses, a higher outgo of capital, security premiums, and, of course, diesel prices. … If determination is immoderate uptick successful shipping volumes, rates volition emergence astatine an adjacent faster pace.”

Van Contract Rate Per Mile Index (VCRPM1.USA) for 2026 (blue shaded area), 2025 (yellow line), <em>2024 (green line) and 2023 (pink line).</em> The scale shows a 7-day moving mean of the archetypal reporting of adust van declaration rates without substance oregon accessorial charges.</em>

RXO ups Q2 outlook

A Tuesday update from the institution said it was “winning accretive spot opportunities,” and that it expects gross nett per load (TL) to transcend mean seasonal trends, coming successful “at slightest flat” with April. (It antecedently guided to a diminution successful gross nett per load during May.)

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