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Stuart Chirls
Wed, March 18, 2026 astatine 6:00 AM CDT 8 min read
A obstruction manufacture commercialized radical says February information connected freight volumes, inflation, and manufacturing suggest a brushed landing for the economy, with easing ostentation and nary important slowdown successful economical growth.
Carloads accrued 6.5% year-over-year, led by gains successful grain, coal, and different concern products. Year-to-date shipments were the highest since 2023, wrote Rand Ghayad, main economist for the Association of American Railroads, successful a monthly analysis.
Intermodal volumes rebounded by 1.5% arsenic play mean measurement marked a grounds precocious for the month.
A dependable ascent successful SONAR flatbed motortruck rates bespeak the aboriginal signs of a manufacturing recovery, but 1 that an enforcement with a railcar builder told FreightWaves hasn’t extended to gondolas, which transportation steel, scrap and different flatbed-type cargoes.
Ghayad highlighted the closely-watched Manufacturing PMI successful February, which was supra 50% for the 2nd consecutive month, portion manufacturing output successful January reached its highest level since October 2022, “suggesting a imaginable inflection constituent successful concern activity.”
While the unsettled labour marketplace is simply a concern, layoffs stay comparatively low, suggesting employers are inactive reluctant to chopped jobs. “Looking ahead, a betterment successful manufacturing, continued resiliency for user spending, and easing commercialized tensions would enactment obstruction measurement growth, portion persistent inflation, a weakening labour market, precocious involvement rates, and uncertain planetary commercialized argumentation could measurement connected demand,” Ghayad said. After indicators of slower maturation successful January, “Significant uncertainty remains. But for railroads, the latest information points to a much supportive backdrop for freight request successful the months ahead.”
Intermodal marks grounds month
In February, 14 of 20 large carload categories saw year-over-year gains, led by grain, coal, chemicals, and petroleum products. Said Ghayad, “That suggests concern enactment and goods question request are firming. That matters due to the fact that galore carload sectors thin to determination intimately with underlying real‑economy activity, making obstruction volumes a wide real-time awesome of changing freight demand.”
Intermodal shipments connected U.S. railroads averaged 280,687 units per week successful February, a record, and the archetypal year-over-year summation successful six months. The January-February full of 2.19 cardinal containers and trailers, disconnected 1.9% y/y, were inactive the second-highest full ever for the archetypal 2 months of a year. “The operation of humble year-over-year softness and still-elevated implicit measurement suggests underlying goods request has cooled but not collapsed,” Ghayad said.
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