Rail freight outlook waits for improved indicators

For railroads, an uneven economical backdrop is pointing to a cautious outlook arsenic freight request hinges connected whether manufacturing momentum tin beryllium sustained, however commercialized argumentation evolves, and what unfolds successful the labour marketplace — each areas with important unfastened questions.

An uneven backdrop

For the economy, uncertainty continues to beryllium a defining feature, says expert Rand Ghayad of the Association of American Railroads.

The astir caller Gross Domestic Product fig – 4.4% successful Q3 2025 implicit Q2 2025 – was strong, but fewer forecasters presumption that gait arsenic sustainable.

Consumer confidence, different worrisome indicator, precocious fell to an astir 12-year low. So far, user spending has held on, suggesting households are pushing past sentiment concerns, but the durability of that enactment remains uncertain. Housing is subdued, car income person softened, and concern accumulation has been mostly level for respective years. January’s large leap successful the Manufacturing PMI to 52.6% was encouraging, but whether that marks a sustained crook oregon a short‑lived bounce is unknown.

Conversely, respective fundamentals assistance explicate wherefore galore economists inactive expect maturation successful the 2% – 2.5% scope this year.

The labour market, portion cooling, continues to make income growth, portion ostentation has eased capable to enactment existent purchasing power. Household equilibrium sheets stay comparatively healthy; service‑sector enactment is holding up; and fiscal conditions person not tightened to recessionary levels. If GDP maturation persists, it volition apt beryllium due to the fact that user spending continues to transportation the expansion, employment avoids a crisp downturn, and manufacturing weakness does not deepen. These conditions are acold from guaranteed but are not implausible, Ghayad said.

Carloads grow, intermodal falls

A terrible wintertime tempest disrupted obstruction operations successful overmuch of the state the past week of January, but U.S. obstruction volumes person remained resilient.

Total U.S. carloads roseate 4.4% successful January 2026 implicit January 2025, with 12 of the 20 large AAR-tracked carload categories posting gains, led by grain, coal, and industrial-related products. Meanwhile, U.S. obstruction intermodal shipments fell 3.5% successful January, their 5th consecutive year‑over‑year alteration arsenic weaker larboard activity, softer goods demand, and ample trucking capableness continued to measurement connected intermodal volumes.

Key obstruction commodities

The AAR Freight Rail Index (FRI), which tracks seasonally adjusted intermodal shipments and carloads excluding ember and grain, roseate 3.1% successful January 2026 implicit December 2025, chiefly connected an uptick successful carload traffic.

Coal

In January 2026, ember carloads were up much than 10,500 carloads, oregon 4.7%, implicit January 2025. This is the biggest monthly percent summation since May 2025; year-over-year volumes person risen successful 8 of the past 11 months. Long‑term U.S. ember usage has been trending down, but respective short‑term economic, weather, and argumentation factors person pushed ember depletion and accumulation upward successful 2025 and into aboriginal 2026.