Project ramp-ups and new projects set to lift Australia’s iron ore output in 2026

GlobalData

Thu, February 26, 2026 astatine 10:00 AM CST 2 min read

Australia is the world’s largest robust ore producer, accounting for 36.8% of planetary robust ore accumulation successful 2024. The country’s output is estimated to person reached 967.8 cardinal tonnes (mt) successful 2025, up 1.4% YoY, mostly supported by continued ramp-ups crossed cardinal projects, including MRL’s Onslow, BHP’s South Flank, and Fortescue’s Iron Bridge. In addition, the Western Range excavation commenced successful precocious March 2025—operated by Rio Tinto (54%) and China Baowu Steel Group (46%)—with a accumulation capableness of 25mtpa, further lifting Australia’s proviso base.

However, the upside has been partially offset by operational adjustments and outer challenges. These see the ramp-down of BHP’s Yandi excavation owed to assets depletion, softer output from the Roy Hill amid weaker robust ore prices, and weather-related interruptions specified arsenic Cyclone Zelia successful February 2025. Output was besides constrained by the suspension of the Koolyanobbing mine, which was placed connected care-and-maintenance successful aboriginal 2025, owed to constricted reserves and elevated operating costs.

Looking ahead, Australia’s robust ore accumulation is projected to summation by 2.6% successful 2026 to 993.4mt, underpinned by ongoing ramp-ups astatine the Onslow, Western Range, and Iron Bridge. Additional enactment is expected from the planned start-up of the McPhee Creek and Lamb Creek, alongside the planned resumption of the Koolyanobbing successful December 2025, pursuing the merchantability of MRL’s Yilgarn robust ore operations and assets (including Koolyanobbing) to Yilgarn Iron Investments Pty Ltd connected 30 June 2025.

The 2026 maturation illustration volition beryllium partially moderated by planned closures astatine Itochu Corp’s Yandi and MRL’s Wonnmunna robust ore mines, which unneurotic contributed 27.2mt to nationalist output successful 2024. Over the forecast play (2026–2035), Australia’s robust ore output is expected to inclination higher overall, with a impermanent dip successful 2033 pursuing the scheduled closures of the Roy Hill and Firetail mines successful 2032. Beyond this, commissioning and ramp-ups of projects specified arsenic the Mulga Downs (2028), Rhodes Ridge, Marillana, Hawsons, and Ridley Magnetite (2030) are expected to enactment supply, alongside incremental gains from operating hubs including the Onslow, Iron Bridge, Western Range, West Angelas, and the Mt Newman Joint Venture. This upside volition beryllium partially offset by depletion-driven shutdowns astatine the Yandi (2026), Buzzard and Iron Ridge (2029), and Marandoo (2030), among others.

Overall, Australia’s robust ore accumulation is forecast to turn astatine a compound yearly maturation complaint (CAGR) of 1.1% to scope 1,094.6mt by 2035.

"Project ramp-ups and caller projects acceptable to assistance Australia’s robust ore output successful 2026" was primitively created and published by Mining Technology, a GlobalData owned brand.