‘Prices could surge past $100’: What the Iran war means for gas prices — and how to lower your car costs now

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A motion   displays prices for gasoline astatine  a presumption    connected  March 02, 2026 successful  Chicago, Illinois.

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The planetary lipid marketplace has a unit point, and it sits successful a constrictive agelong of h2o disconnected the seashore of Iran.

Roughly one-fifth of the world’s lipid proviso moves done the Strait of Hormuz each day. When warnings travel arsenic tensions successful the Middle East escalate — and lipid commercialized flows done the Strait of Hormuz grind to a halt — traders terms successful the hazard immediately.

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“If the strait were disrupted, prices could surge past $100 per barrel, perchance driving gasoline adjacent to $5 per gallon,” said Claudio Galimberti, main economist astatine Rystad Energy (1).

Gasoline prices person already climbed supra $3 per gallon nationwide, though Galimberti says further escalation could propulsion prices overmuch higher (2).

“Iran is infinitely much hopeless today… which means it’s much inclined to lash retired if lone to rise the outgo of U.S. intervention,” Matt Reed, vice president of Foreign Reports, reportedly told Fortune.

For American drivers, that hazard translates into thing painfully simple: higher substance bills.

Gas isn’t the lone disbursal driver, either. When substance costs ascent — and historically, they bash — the full outgo of car ownership rises. Insurance premiums, maintenance, financing costs and day-to-day driving expenses are apt to increase.

While you can’t power lipid markets, you can power however your household handles its car costs.

Markets respond rapidly to geopolitical instability.

Any menace to shipping lanes successful the Persian Gulf tin trigger overnight spikes successful lipid prices, particularly if traders judge supplies could tighten.

At the bosom of this sensitivity is the Strait of Hormuz, a constrictive waterway betwixt Iran and Oman that serves arsenic a chokepoint for planetary lipid trade. Roughly 20% of the world’s petroleum liquids and astir one-fifth of each liquefied earthy state walk done it each time (3).

Because determination are fewer applicable alternate routes, adjacent the cognition of disruption tin nonstop state prices higher. In 2025, analysts said adjacent a partial shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz would thrust Brent crude past $100 per tube — and perchance supra $110 if the disruption dragged connected (4).

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