Oracle’s Massive AI Bet Has Already Cost Larry Ellison $207 Billion. Analyst Warns the AI Bubble Is 17 Times Bigger Than the Dot-Com Bubble.

Larry Ellison has mislaid $207 cardinal successful little than a year. His luck peaked adjacent $388 cardinal successful September 2025, erstwhile Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) traded astatine $345.72 and concisely made him lone the 2nd idiosyncratic ever, aft Elon Musk, to transverse $400 billion. As of August 2, 2026, Bloomberg's Billionaires Index puts him astatine $181 billion, No. 7 globally, down Mark Zuckerberg astatine $199 cardinal and conscionable up of NVIDIA's Jensen Huang astatine $166 billion. Year-to-date, Ellison is down $66.0 billion, with astir of the illness arriving aft Oracle's stock terms broke successful June.

The Mechanics of the Crash

Oracle's marketplace worth has fallen by astir $494 cardinal since peaking astatine $877.1 cardinal successful September 2025. The banal closed astatine $121.38 connected July 20, 2026, much than 55% disconnected its September 2025 peak. Fiscal 2026 superior expenditures ballooned to $55.66 billion, past Oracle's ain $50 cardinal guidance, flipping escaped currency travel to antagonistic $23.7 billion.

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Oracle's Q4 8-K reported Remaining Performance Obligations of $638 billion, up 363% year-over-year, astir locked into long-dated contracts that volition not person to currency for years. A ample chunk ties to OpenAI, whose IPO has slipped to 2027. S&P Global downgraded Oracle's recognition rating, informing the buildout mightiness wage disconnected agelong word but could weaken near-term fiscal position. Melius Research questioned whether Oracle's spending plans clasp if OpenAI oregon Anthropic standard backmost request for compute. Sitting down each of it: Project Stargate, a program to put up to $500 cardinal successful AI-focused information centers implicit 4 years.

The 17x Thesis

In October 2025, Julien Garran, spouse astatine UK steadfast MacroStrategy Partnership, published a study arguing the AI concern frenzy is simply a "misallocation of capital" 17 times the size of the dot-com bubble and 4 times the size of the 2008 real-estate/subprime bubble. He called it "the biggest and astir unsafe bubble the satellite has ever seen." His "golden rule" case: ample connection models are statistical word-prediction engines with architectural limits, coding tools reproduce rote patterns, and capableness has deed a "scaling wall" since GPT-4 launched successful March 2023.