Nvidia, Micron or Broadcom: What Would Raymond Dalio Do?

Through Ray Dalio's risk-adjusted lens, NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) astatine $218.99 is simply a bargain implicit its 2 closest AI-cycle rivals. The Bridgewater laminitis favors diversification, durable currency flow, and setups wherever maturation is real, priced reasonably, and defensible.

All 3 spot giants thrust the aforesaid AI capex question from antithetic rungs. NVIDIA sells the GPUs and networking that specify AI factories. Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) supplies the HBM representation those GPUs require. Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) builds the customized accelerators and Ethernet cloth hyperscalers usage to bypass NVIDIA wherever possible.

NVIDIA carries a $5.30 trillion marketplace cap, Broadcom sits adjacent $2 trillion, and Micron rounds retired the trio adjacent $1 trillion.

The Bull Case: Cash Flow the Size of a Small Country

NVIDIA's astir caller 4th delivered gross of $81.615 billion, up 85.2% twelvemonth implicit year, with non-GAAP EPS of $1.87 and Data Center gross of $75.246 billion. Networking unsocial grew 199%. Guidance calls for $91 cardinal successful Q2 FY27 astatine a 75% gross margin.

Valuation surprises. Shares commercialized astatine a guardant P/E of 23 with a PEG of 0.55, cheaper connected maturation than Broadcom's P/E of 69. Free currency travel deed $48.55 cardinal successful the 4th and $96.58 cardinal successful FY26.

The Bear Case: Concentration Risk and Cheaper Alternatives

Supply commitments person swelled to $119 billion, betting hyperscaler capex compounds. Those aforesaid hyperscalers money alternatives. Broadcom's AI silicon gross jumped 143% to $10.80 cardinal past 4th with Q3 guided to $16 billion. Every customized accelerator shipped is simply a GPU that was not.

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China Data Center compute present contributes zero to guidance. Micron trades astatine a guardant P/E of 5 with a PEG of 0.12, and its Q3 gross soared 345.7%. Memory cycles person humbled diligent investors before.

The Case for Patience Before Chasing

NVIDIA has climbed 12.28% successful the past week and 17.56% twelvemonth to date. Polymarket traders delegate lone 57.0% probability to a play adjacent supra $220, and a 7-day sentiment diminution of 6.87 points signals fading condemnation into the August 26 net report. Waiting for that study could reprice hazard successful either direction.