Next move on Iran: Seize Kharg Island, secure uranium or risk ground war escalation

As the U.S.–Iran warfare enters a caller phase, the scope of options present being discussed stretches from hitting Iran’s economical lifeline astatine Kharg Island to the acold much unsafe imaginable of a crushed invasion, oregon a narrower cognition focused connected Iran’s atomic material. 

The urgency comes arsenic caller U.S. strikes person degraded parts of Iran’s subject infrastructure without collapsing the regime, raising unit connected the Trump medication to determine what comes next. 

Each enactment carries important risks: disrupting Kharg Island could daze planetary lipid markets, a crushed penetration could gully the U.S. into a prolonged determination war, and operations targeting atomic worldly could trigger escalation portion inactive failing to destruct the threat. 

What happens adjacent could find not lone the trajectory of the struggle with Iran, but besides the stableness of planetary vigor proviso and the aboriginal of Tehran’s atomic program.

Recent U.S. strikes already deed subject targets connected Kharg Island, a tiny land successful the Persian Gulf that serves arsenic Iran’s main lipid export terminal, and person emerged arsenic a cardinal unit constituent successful the conflict, portion sparing its lipid infrastructure, underscoring conscionable however consequential the adjacent determination could be.

Seizing oregon neutralizing Kharg Island

Kharg Island is the centerpiece of Iran’s lipid export system. The land handles astir 90% of Iran’s lipid exports, and Iran precocious has been exporting astir 1.1 cardinal barrels to 1.5 cardinal barrels of lipid per day, mostly to China. 

Recent U.S. strikes connected Kharg targeted subject installations portion leaving cardinal lipid facilities intact — a motion that Washington is trying to sphere a large unit constituent without instantly detonating planetary lipid markets.

Abdullah Aljunaid, a Bahraini analyst, told Fox News Digital that aft Iran’s subject capabilities were weakened, the U.S. absorption could displacement to economical unit connected Iran. 

"The Iranian subject capableness and violative abilities person been wholly degraded, truthful we request to astir apt bash thing else," Aljunaid said.

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A outer representation shows the Strait of Hormuz, a cardinal maritime transition connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, captious for planetary vigor supply. (Amanda Macias/Fox News Digital)

Aljunaid pointed to cardinal strategical sites, including Bushehr — a coastal metropolis successful confederate Iran connected the Persian Gulf that hosts the country’s lone operational atomic powerfulness works and a cardinal larboard — and Kharg Island, Iran’s main lipid export hub.

"We request to instrumentality definite strategical assets — geography — similar Bushehr and Kharg, retired of the equation," helium said. "Those two, particularly Kharg, correspond the jewel of the crown, and without that, Iran’s economical quality to concern itself is going to beryllium dead."

He added that power implicit cardinal maritime choke points could further displacement the balance. 

"If the U.S. decided to instrumentality Bushehr astatine the rima of the Strait of Hormuz, past I judge we tin truly spot a antithetic equation, forcing the Iranians to travel to the negotiating array connected our presumption — the U.S. terms, and astir apt the remainder of the world."

Retired Gen. Jack Keane has argued that the U.S. could instrumentality Iran’s main lipid export hub if it chose to bash so, but truthful acold has chosen "not to instrumentality that now," helium said connected Fox News’ "Sunday Morning Futures."

Satellite presumption of Kharg Island, located successful the Persian Gulf disconnected the seashore of Iran.  (Gallo Images/Orbital Horizon/Copernicus Sentinel Data 2024)

Keane said specified a determination would efficaciously enactment the Iranian authorities successful "checkmate," fixed however heavy its system depends connected the island. 

"Now we (would) ain each of their large assets," Keane said. "It's 50% of their budget, 60% of the revenue, 80, 90% of the organisation points for their oil." 

That presumption reflects the logic down a Kharg scenario: disable the regime’s currency travel without launching a full-scale warfare crossed Iran’s interior. At the aforesaid time, the information that Kharg’s lipid infrastructure was reportedly spared suggests Washington thinks taking the land afloat offline could nonstop vigor prices sharply higher and shingle planetary markets. 

Kharg’s facilities see large retention capableness and immoderate superior disruption determination could region up to astir 2 cardinal barrels a time from planetary supply, Reuters noted. 

There besides is simply a nonkinetic mentation of this scenario. 

In an investigation shared with Fox News Digital, Rick Clay, who served arsenic a elder lawman advisor successful Iraq from 2003 to 2009, argued that maritime security tin relation arsenic a strategical choke point. 

His statement is that a tanker without recognized sum cannot easy dock, concern cargo oregon run successful compliant markets, meaning the United States could unit Iran’s export strategy financially adjacent without physically seizing the island.

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Waving Iran emblem supra skyline of Tehran astatine sunset.  (istock)

A crushed penetration of ‘Fortress Iran’

Public analyses person agelong described Iran’s geography arsenic profoundly unfavorable to invading armies, with upland barriers and godforsaken terrain complicating immoderate large-scale advance. 

Historical comparisons often constituent to Iraq’s failed 1980 penetration of Iran, which turned into a agelong and bloody warfare alternatively than the speedy triumph Saddam Hussein expected.

The word "Fortress Iran" is often utilized by analysts to picture the country’s earthy defenses — a operation of immense upland ranges, including the Zagros and Alborz, on with deserts and hard terrain that person historically made penetration and concern highly challenging.

For those reasons, analysts accidental a crushed penetration remains the astir utmost — and slightest plausible — path, fixed Iran’s size, terrain and history.

Aljunaid made a akin point, noting that adjacent the 1991 liberation of Kuwait required much than fractional a cardinal troops, and informing that a warfare wrong Iran would beryllium exponentially much complicated.

That interest is reinforced by the existent authorities of the conflict. 

Despite sustained U.S.-Israeli strikes and dense harm to Iran’s subject infrastructure, the authorities itself remains intact and much hardline, The Washington Post reported, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps consolidating powerfulness alternatively than collapsing. 

In different words, aerial superiority has not translated into authorities collapse, which makes the leap to concern adjacent harder to imagine.

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Maxar Technologies imagery captures aftermath of U.S. and Israeli strikes connected Iran's Fordow uranium facility, revealing damaged tunnels and repair operations underway. (Maxar Technologies)

"We’re not going to enactment troops connected the mainland," Clay said. "The lone troops you mightiness see, if anything, would beryllium to instrumentality retired those 3 islands. That’s it."

He added that determination is "no appetite" for a sustained crushed beingness wrong Iran, arguing that immoderate interior alteration would yet beryllium connected the Iranian people.

 "It’s going to beryllium successful the Iranians’ hands astatine that constituent — the Iranian radical — whether they emergence up," helium said. "We’ve done damage. We’re inactive going to bash immoderate much damage. We’re not done." 

Pointed ops to unafraid uranium

A 3rd script would purpose not astatine occupying territory, but astatine Iran's atomic programme itself. 

A narrower cognition would apt impact targeting Iran’s enriched uranium stockpiles and profoundly buried facilities — perchance including efforts to locate, unafraid oregon disable atomic worldly that cannot beryllium destroyed from the air.

A 3rd script would purpose not astatine occupying territory, but astatine Iran’s atomic programme itself.

Although President Donald Trump said the June 2025 U.S. strikes had "obliterated" cardinal atomic sites, analysts enactment that captious elements of Iran’s programme — peculiarly enriched uranium stockpiles and profoundly buried facilities — apt stay intact.

Iran is believed to person astir 440.9 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), with much than 200 kilograms apt stored successful the underground Isfahan passageway complex, Reuters reported March 9.

That matters due to the fact that the worldly is tiny capable to fell and move, dissimilar lipid infrastructure, and immoderate of these profoundly buried facilities are believed to person survived accepted aerial attacks — raising the anticipation that securing oregon neutralizing atomic worldly could necessitate much targeted, specialized operations.

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A wide presumption of Tehran with fume disposable successful the region aft explosions were reported successful the city, connected March 2, 2026 successful Tehran, Iran. (Contributor/Getty Images)

Kharg Island offers a mode to compression Iran’s economy. A crushed penetration offers the anticipation of a decisive unit astatine bonzer cost. Targeted operations against atomic instrumentality connection a narrower path, but 1 with precocious operational hazard and nary warrant of finality. 

The adjacent signifier of the warfare whitethorn beryllium connected which of those risks Washington is consenting to take.

The Pentagon chose not to supply a comment. 

The White House did not respond to a petition for remark by clip of publication. 

Reuters contributed to this report.