Needham lifts Bitdeer target to $22 after $4.7 billion Tydal lease

Needham raised its Bitdeer Technologies (NASDAQ: BTDR) terms people to $22 from $19 aft the relation signed a 121 IT MW lease with Volta astatine its Tydal field successful Norway.

The people implies astir 94% upside from Bitdeer's Aug. 3 closing terms of $11.37. Needham retained its Buy standing and valued the institution astatine 14.5 times estimated 2027 EV/EBITDA.

The 16-year colocation statement carries $4.7 cardinal of contracted revenue, oregon astir $202 per kW per month. A one-time eight-year renewal enactment could assistance full declaration worth to astir $8 cardinal implicit 24 years.

High gross density, debased remaining capex

Needham calculated mean yearly gross of astir $2.43 cardinal per IT MW, supra the $1.27 cardinal to $2.37 cardinal scope crossed comparable transactions successful its coverage. Annual escalators are 3%, portion energy is reimbursed by Volta arsenic a pass-through expense.

Bitdeer expects a 90% NOI margin, equivalent to astir $2.16 cardinal of yearly NOI per IT MW. That measurement excludes firm overhead, depreciation, amortization and share-based compensation.

The institution estimates different $500 cardinal of capex is required, oregon astir $4 cardinal per IT MW. Needham contrasted that fig with estimated costs of $9 cardinal to $13 cardinal per IT MW for respective greenfield U.S. developments. On remaining capex, the brokerage estimated a 54.6% output connected cost, reflecting Tydal's existing infrastructure and anterior usage arsenic a bitcoin mining site.

Two information halls are scheduled to commence work by Dec. 31, 2026, with the 2nd signifier targeted for March 31, 2027. Bitdeer is besides processing different 47 gross MW astatine Tydal for transportation during the 2nd fractional of 2027.

Credit enactment covers portion of the lease

Needham said the economics compensate Bitdeer for Volta's weaker recognition comparative to investment-grade customers. Volta's obligations are expected to person $1.3 cardinal of enactment done letters of credit, covering lone portion of the $4.7 cardinal archetypal declaration value.

Volta besides has a no-fee termination close aft twelvemonth 10. Bitdeer tin terminate earlier if Volta fails to conscionable specified milestones for arranging the recognition backstop.

Volta launched Tuesday with backing from Andreessen Horowitz, Altimeter Capital, Nvidia and Michael Dell's household office. It announced a $10 cardinal computing concern with an unnamed AI lab, which Bloomberg identified arsenic Anthropic, citing radical acquainted with the agreement.

Needham accrued its 2027 gross estimation to $1.444 cardinal from $1.398 cardinal and adjusted EBITDA forecast to $549 cardinal from $494 million. It lowered its 2026 forecasts due to the fact that of weaker expected mining contribution, cutting gross to $916 cardinal and adjusted EBITDA to $127 million.

Needham disclosed that it received investment-banking compensation from Bitdeer during the past 12 months and makes a marketplace successful the company's shares.