Nebius Is Worth 55 Times Its Revenue. What Does That Price Assume?

2 weeks ago 18

Daniel Sparks, The Motley Fool

Sat, August 8, 2026 astatine 12:12 PM CDT 5 min read

Nebius Group (NASDAQ: NBIS) carries a marketplace capitalization of astir $48.6 billion. Over the past 12 months, the institution collected $877.9 cardinal successful revenue.

Divide 1 by the different and the banal trades astatine astir 55 times income -- the benignant of aggregate usually attached to a bundle business. Nebius buys graphics processors by the cardinal and signs powerfulness contracts by the gigawatt.

Missed Nvidia successful 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" awesome flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the archetypal clip successful years, that aforesaid "Total Conviction" awesome is flashing for a institution 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »

But the trailing fig successful that fraction is doing thing odd. In the archetypal quarter, radical gross roseate 684% twelvemonth implicit twelvemonth to $399 million. Revenue astatine the Nebius artificial quality (AI) unreality concern unsocial roseate 841% twelvemonth implicit twelvemonth to $390 million, up 82% from the erstwhile quarter.

In different words, the past 12 months see periods erstwhile this institution was a tiny fraction of its existent size. The denominator describes a concern that nary longer exists. So what is the terms really assuming?

Rows of machine servers successful a ample information center.

A trailing fig the institution has already outgrown

The measurement Nebius points investors toward is annualized tally rate, which it calculates by taking the past period of a quarter's AI unreality gross and multiplying by 12. That fig reached $1.9 cardinal astatine the extremity of March. It was $1.25 cardinal astatine the extremity of December, and it is up 674% twelvemonth implicit year.

Management guides for radical gross of $3 cardinal to $3.4 cardinal this twelvemonth and a tally complaint of $7 cardinal to $9 cardinal exiting the year. It besides expects a radical adjusted net earlier interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) borderline of astir 40%.

That past fig is not overmuch of a agelong from wherever the concern already sits. After all, the AI unreality concern ran astatine a 45% adjusted EBITDA borderline successful the archetypal quarter, though the radical came successful astatine 32%, dragged by 2 overmuch smaller units.

Now measurement the marketplace capitalization against those numbers alternatively of the trailing ones. About $48.6 cardinal against $3.2 cardinal of 2026 gross astatine the midpoint is astir 15 times this year's sales. Against $8 cardinal of exit tally rate, it is astir six times.

Six times a tally complaint is simply a terms investors tin reason about. It isn't a fig that requires believing the institution tin bash thing it has ne'er done.

That is what the 55 is truly assuming: that the guidance lands much oregon little arsenic given.