Morning Bid: March is the cruellest month

By Mike Dolan

March 31 -

What matters successful U.S. and planetary markets today

By Mike Dolan, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets

The turbulent archetypal 4th of 2026 ends with a dull thud, arsenic the Iran warfare continues to rumble and the vigor terms daze hits homes with mean U.S. state pump ‌prices crossing $4 per gallon for the archetypal clip successful much than 3 years.

The war’s expected timeline shifts from header to headline. For those betting ‌the struggle volition extremity soon, the Wall Street Journal provided immoderate ammunition, reporting connected Monday that President Trump was prepared to extremity the warfare without opening the Strait of Hormuz - an encouraging thought that's lifted ​U.S. banal futures connected the past time of a bruising March.

I’ll get into that and much below.

But first, cheque retired my latest file connected however markets are giving cardinal banks country to intermission amid the vigor shock.

And perceive to today’s Morning Bid podcast, wherever I instrumentality banal of the archetypal quarter's large marketplace moves. Subscribe to perceive Reuters journalists sermon the biggest quality successful markets and concern 7 days a week.

MARCH IS THE CRUELLEST MONTH

While the WSJ study indicates that Trump is looking for an contiguous offramp, those pessimistic ‌about the duration of the warfare whitethorn absorption much connected ⁠the Iranian onslaught connected an lipid tanker successful the Gulf that took spot aboriginal Tuesday - arsenic good arsenic further reports of U.S. troops arriving successful the region, this clip 2,500 Marines.

Crude prices were choppy connected Tuesday morning, ebbing somewhat earlier climbing again to permission ⁠Brent hovering astir $115 per tube and U.S. crude astir $104.

Stocks were mixed, meantime, with Wall Street futures successful the greenish earlier the bell. And portion European shares edged up connected de-escalation hopes, the pan-European STOXX 600 inactive remains connected way for its sharpest monthly autumn since 2020.

Elsewhere, Asian trading had different achy league arsenic large indexes closed little - with South Korea's KOSPI suffering ​its ​steepest monthly autumn since 2008.

U.S. Treasury yields eased connected Monday, though they stay connected way for ​a steep monthly rise, with eurozone enslaved yields dipping arsenic well. ‌Fed Chair Jerome Powell helped the betterment successful Treasuries yesterday erstwhile helium noted that semipermanent ostentation expectations remained “well anchored” - though helium different said the Fed would “wait and see” however the warfare yet impacts inflation.

But arsenic the IMF pointed retired connected Monday, "all roads pb to higher ostentation and slower growth". In that vein, eurozone ostentation leapt to 2.5% successful March from 1.9% previously, portion connected Monday caller German ostentation information showed a leap to 2.8% from 2.0%.