Morning Bid: From 48 hours to five days

By Mike Dolan

March 24 - What matters successful U.S. and planetary markets today

By Mike Dolan, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets

As President Trump’s 48-hour countdown to attacks connected Iranian powerfulness plants becomes 5 days acknowledgment to an evident breakthrough with Tehran, markets are arsenic confused arsenic anybody astir who precisely ‌is talking to who. U.S. and Iranian messaging connected the substance differs starkly.

Trump's announcement caused chaotic marketplace swings connected Monday, with lipid plunging, stocks rallying, ‌and yields easing. But immoderate of that alleviation momentum is looking a small little definite today.

I’ll get into that and much below.

But first, cheque retired my latest file connected however bonds' Iran-war doldrums acceptable a agelong ​historical signifier - and what mightiness beryllium needed for a turnaround.

And drawback today’s occurrence of the Morning Bid podcast, wherever I unpack the whiplash and contradictions roiling markets. Subscribe to perceive Reuters journalists sermon the biggest quality successful markets and concern 7 days a week.

FROM 48 HOURS TO FIVE DAYS

Oil prices plunged much than 10% connected Monday successful the aftermath of Trump's announcement, with Brent dropping to arsenic debased arsenic $97 per tube and WTI touching $86. Other markets rallied connected the backmost of that, with each large U.S. banal indexes finishing up much ‌than 1%.

But Iran claimed that nary negotiations with the U.S. ⁠had taken spot and that the full happening was “fake news” aimed astatine calming markets.

That’s dampened things somewhat, with lipid retracing immoderate of its losses connected Tuesday to permission Brent hovering conscionable supra $100 per tube and U.S. crude astir $90.

In equities, Asian shares managed to eke retired ⁠a summation connected Tuesday, but European shares were shaky and U.S. banal futures edged down earlier the bell.

The Strait of Hormuz remains closed - but to a fistful of India-flagged tankers - and missiles kept flying overnight. If thing gets resolved, it’s going to beryllium different tense Friday ahead.

Whatever the information down each the authorities and maneuvering, fiscal traders subscribing to the thought that Trump ever ​backs ​down erstwhile fiscal markets quake volition spot this latest occurrence arsenic confirmation of that stance.

Specifically, the ​surge successful U.S. Treasury yields aboriginal connected Monday to their highest ‌in 7 months - earlier easing aft Trump's station - was different denotation that rising authorities borrowing costs are the president's kryptonite during his much disruptive ventures.

Either way, markets stay tense and volition contiguous support tabs connected conscionable however overmuch harm the Middle East struggle has done to concern assurance successful March arsenic flash concern surveys are released astir the world.