Monthly Cotton Economic Newsletter: December 2025

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SJ Guest Editorial

Mon, December 15, 2025 astatine 6:00 AM CST 5 min read

Most fabric benchmarks were unchangeable implicit the past month.

Around the extremity of precocious November, the NY/ICE March declaration tested levels adjacent 65 cents/lb but has since retreated to values person to 63 cents.
The A Index was range-bound, but drifted little wrong its range, easing from 76 to 74 cents/lb implicit the past month.
The Chinese Cotton Index (CC Index 3128B) was besides mostly steady, but it moved somewhat higher, from 94 to 96 cents/lb successful planetary terms. In home terms, values were mostly betwixt 14,750 and 15,000 RMB/ton. The RMB strengthened somewhat against the dollar, from 7.12 to 7.07 RMB/USD.
Indian spot prices (Shankar-6 quality) held adjacent 74 cents/lb oregon adjacent 52,000 INR/candy implicit the past month. The INR traded astir 89 INR/USD.
Pakistani spot prices were dependable adjacent 66 cents/lb oregon 15,300 PKR/maund implicit the past month. The PKR held adjacent 281 PKR/USD.

The latest revisions to USDA estimates included flimsy reductions to the estimates for planetary accumulation (-292,000 bales to 119.8 million) and mill usage (-275,000 bales to 118.6 million) successful 2025/26. Historical revisions accrued satellite opening stocks somewhat (+127,000 to 74.6 million). The nett effect of these changes connected ending stocks was insignificant (+42,000 bales to 76.0 million).

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At the state level, the largest changes to accumulation figures were for Mali (-280,000 to 820,000) and the U.S. (+153,000 to 14.3. million).

For mill-use, the largest changes included those for Brazil (-100,000 bales to 3.4 million) and the U.S. (-100,000 bales to 1.6 million).

The planetary commercialized fig was reduced -275,000 bales to 43.7 million. In presumption of imports, the largest changes were for Bangladesh (-100,000 bales to 8.0 million) and Vietnam (-100,000 bales to 8.1 million). In presumption of exports, the lone alteration implicit 100,000 bales was for Mali (-150,000 bales to 900,000).

With the reopening of the U.S. government, galore information streams that were disrupted person been reactivated. During the 43 days the authorities was shutdown (Oct. 1 done Nov. 12), fabric prices moved lower, with values for the most-currently-actively traded NY/ICE declaration slipping from levels implicit 67 cents/lb to those adjacent 63 cents.

The shutdown itself appears an improbable power connected terms movement, but the merchandise of authorities information covering the play of the shutdown uncover different explanatory factors. The summation successful the accumulation estimates released successful November is 1 example. Larger harvest numbers for China, Brazil and the U.S. re-emphasized a market-shaping storyline successful play since 2024—that determination is ample exportable proviso comparative to import demand.