Lower EV demand forecast to dampen down US February vehicle market

Total US caller airy conveyance income for February 2026, including retail and non-retail transactions, are projected to scope 1,183,000, a 3.8% alteration year-over-year, according to a associated forecast from JD Power and GlobalData.

February 2026 has 24 selling days, the aforesaid arsenic February 2025.

The seasonally adjusted annualised complaint (SAAR) for full caller conveyance income is expected to beryllium 15.6 cardinal units, down 0.6 cardinal units from February 2025. That compares with a SAAR of 14.8 cardinal units successful January (which was further depressed by terrible wintertime weather).

New conveyance retail income for February 2026 are projected to scope 931,400, a 4.6% alteration from February 2025.

Thomas King, president of OEM solutions astatine JD Power said that arsenic successful January, show is being shaped by depressed electrical conveyance (EV) retail demand—EVs are expected to relationship for conscionable 6.6% of retail sales, down 1.8 percent points from a twelvemonth ago. “Elevated transaction prices proceed to measurement connected volumes done ongoing affordability pressure,” helium said.

Nevertheless, helium besides said that contempt the comparatively dilatory commencement to the year, acceleration successful the income gait is expected implicit the equilibrium of 2026, starting with March, which is traditionally a high-volume income month. “There volition beryllium elevated promotional enactment from manufacturers,” helium predicts.

King added: “Affordability unit remains significant, with the mean monthly concern outgo reaching $811, up $32 from a twelvemonth ago. In response, much consumers are turning to 84-month indebtedness terms, which are expected to relationship for 12.7% of financed income this period compared to 7.7% a twelvemonth ago.

“Easing involvement rates and beardown used-vehicle values are providing immoderate alleviation to buyers facing elevated monthly payments. The mean involvement complaint for new-vehicle loans successful February is 6.72%, a alteration of 31 ground points from a twelvemonth ago.”

“Looking ahead, aggregate automakers person publically stated their intent to summation their income measurement successful 2026. However, fixed full caller conveyance income this twelvemonth are expected to beryllium akin to a twelvemonth ago, and few, if immoderate automakers are readying for a income contraction, competitory strength tin beryllium expected to emergence successful the coming months.”

GlobalData forecasts US airy conveyance income astatine 16.2 cardinal units successful 2026 – somewhat down connected 2025’s level (16.3 million). Positive factors for the marketplace see debased involvement rates, higher numbers of lease returns, and taxation reductions. However, GlobalData analysts enactment that affordability volition proceed to beryllium a constraint connected the manufacture arsenic OEMs grapple with the implications of tariff-related costs.