Liberty Energy Inc. (LBRT): A Bull Case Theory

9 hours ago 2

Ricardo Pillai

Thu, December 18, 2025 astatine 9:37 AM CST 3 min read

We came crossed a bullish thesis connected Liberty Energy Inc. connected Valueinvestorsclub.com by Mason. In this article, we volition summarize the bulls’ thesis on LBRT. Liberty Energy Inc.'s share was trading astatine $17.10 as of December 17th. LBRT’s trailing and forward P/E were 15.90 and 22.17 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

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Liberty Energy & Power (LBRT) is evolving from a North American cyclical lipid pressure-pumper into a important subordinate successful behind-the-meter (BTM) powerfulness solutions, targeting large, always-on loads similar data centers. Its absorption precocious highlighted an ambitious program to transcend 1 GW of contracted powerfulness capableness by 2027, which could emergence toward 2 GW arsenic contracting accelerates.

Despite this, the marketplace continues to worth LBRT chiefly arsenic a cyclical lipid services business, leaving the banal materially beneath its 2024 highs. Once the Power conception secures archetypal contracts, the marketplace is expected to ascribe a higher aggregate to this recurring, long-duration gross stream, akin to the “time-to-power” rerating seen successful comparable companies.

LBRT’s Power level is simply a turnkey “power-as-a-service” offering, combining natural-gas genset procurement, installation, substance logistics, 24/7 monitoring, and attraction nether multi-year contracts, with a wide moat from decades of tract operations, vendor relationships, accelerated deployment capabilities, integrated substance logistics, and proprietary bundle balancing outgo and reliability. Strategic alliances, including with Oklo for aboriginal SMR upgrades, heighten the semipermanent maturation pathway. The urgency for BTM solutions is reinforced by grid constraints, proviso concatenation pressures connected state turbines, inferior complaint inflation, and regulatory incentives for highest load management.

The halfway lipid services concern remains resilient, with superior subject and beardown ROIC supporting currency flow, providing a unchangeable instauration arsenic the Power concern scales. Valuation investigation separates the 2 segments: the Power level astatine 10x 2027 EBITDA and the halfway concern astatine 6x through-cycle EBITDA output a YE27 people terms of $33+, representing a imaginable 2x return. Key catalysts see signing archetypal powerfulness contracts, which could trigger a important banal rerating, portion downside risks chiefly impact lipid terms declines and execution hazard successful contracting powerfulness capacity, some of which look manageable. LBRT presents a compelling multi-catalyst concern with asymmetric upside.