KBW discounts Bitdeer stock price, flags ASIC inventory buildup and cash burn

Blockspace Staff

Tue, May 19, 2026 astatine 7:52 AM CDT 2 min read

Keefe, Bruyette & Woods reiterated its Market Perform standing and $11.50 terms people connected Bitdeer (NASDAQ: BTDR) pursuing the company’s first-quarter 2026 earnings. With the banal astatine $13.15 astatine publication, the people implies a antagonistic 12.5% full return.

Analyst Stephen Glagola said 2026 EBITDA estimates were mostly unchanged astatine $205.2 million, arsenic a favorable displacement toward AI unreality gross offset weaker outer SEALMINER sales. The steadfast chopped its 2026 gross forecast to $1.007 cardinal from $1.06 cardinal and lowered 2027 EBITDA to $479.6 cardinal from $515.1 million.

Inventory and request mismatch

SEALMINER inventory surged 143% 4th implicit 4th to $613 million, portion outer income of the machines fell 84% implicit the aforesaid period. “Sealminer inventory is outpacing outer demand, expanding writedown risk,” Glagola said.

Cash pain and leverage

Bitdeer ended Q1 with $261 cardinal successful currency against $1.95 cardinal successful full borrowings. KBW projected antagonistic levered escaped currency travel of $272 cardinal to $373 cardinal implicit the remaining quarters of 2026. Related-party borrowings from BIT Group climbed to $713.4 cardinal from $521.8 cardinal astatine year-end 2025, partially done a bitcoin-denominated indebtedness that exposes the institution to rising dollar-value liabilities arsenic BTC appreciates.

Valuation model

KBW’s people uses a sum-of-the-parts approach: a 6.7% headdress complaint connected a prospective Tydal, Norway colocation lease, and a 7.0x aggregate connected estimated 2026 EBITDA for the remainder of the business. The steadfast does not delegate worth to imaginable colocation deals astatine Rockdale oregon Clarington, citing constricted visibility connected timing.

Bitdeer reported Q1 gross of $188.9 million, up from $70.1 cardinal a twelvemonth earlier, with a nett nonaccomplishment of $159.5 million. In its April operations update, the institution said self-mining hash complaint reached 65.5 EH/s and AI unreality annualized run-rate gross exceeded $69 million.