JPMorgan resets Nvidia stock price target after earnings

The reasoning down that presumption is much nuanced than a elemental beat-and-raise story, and knowing it requires looking astatine what Nvidia (NVDA) said, and did not say, astir what comes next.

What JPMorgan changed connected Nvidia and the expert down the call

JPMorgan expert Harlan Sur raised his terms people connected Nvidia to $280 from $265, maintaining an Overweight rating. At Nvidia's May 21 closing terms of $223.47, the caller people implies astir 25% upside.

The rise followed Nvidia's Q1 FY2027 net merchandise connected May 20, which the institution described arsenic 1 of its strongest quarters connected record.

Nvidia's marketplace capitalization present stands astatine astir $5.41 trillion. Across each 42 analysts tracked by TipRanks, Nvidia holds a Strong Buy statement with an mean 12-month people of $280.31, implying 24.4% upside, according to TipRanks.

The 3 pillars supporting JPMorgan's Nvidia revised thesis

JPMorgan's enactment identified 3 circumstantial reasons for the higher target. First, Nvidia absorption affirmed expectations of sequential gross maturation continuing done the remainder of 2026 and into 2027, supported by hyperscaler information halfway superior expenditure maturation exceeding 70%. That is not a humble capex number. It means the largest unreality infrastructure operators are inactive successful assertive enlargement mode.

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Second, the Blackwell Ultra ramp is present being described by Nvidia absorption arsenic the fastest merchandise ramp successful the company's history. Sur noted that absorption struck a much cautious code connected the Vera Rubin architecture timeline by comparison, but the $1 trillion-plus combined Blackwell and Rubin gross model provides beardown guardant visibility into 2027 earlier adjacent accounting for newer products similar the Vera CPU oregon LPX opportunities.

Third, Nvidia opened a caller $200 cardinal addressable marketplace done its propulsion into the CPU segment. Management indicated it expects each azygous 1 of its customers to yet deploy Vera Rubin, a connection that gives the bull lawsuit antithetic duration, according to CNBC.

The China hazard that JPMorgan is not dismissing

JPMorgan's constructive telephone does not disregard the risks. China remains what analysts are calling the elephant successful the room. Q2 guidance assumes zero Data Center compute gross from China, and the H20 spot export prohibition already triggered a $4.5 cardinal inventory write-down successful the anterior fiscal year.