Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (KSPI): A Bull Case Theory

2 weeks ago 13

Ricardo Pillai

Thu, December 4, 2025 astatine 7:23 AM CST 2 min read

We came crossed a bullish thesis connected Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz connected Margin of Sanity’s Substack. In this article, we volition summarize the bulls’ thesis connected KSPI. Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz's stock was trading astatine $77.31 arsenic of November 28th. KSPI’s trailing P/E was 7.01 according to Yahoo Finance.

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Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz, unneurotic with its subsidiaries, provides payments, marketplace, and fintech solutions for consumers and merchants successful Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Ukraine. KSPI is simply a unsocial high-growth, capital-light fintech and e-commerce level operating chiefly successful Kazakhstan, with caller enlargement into Turkey via Hepsiburada. The company’s equilibrium expanse is exceptionally strong, with implicit 2 trillion KZT successful currency and cash-like assets, netting retired minimal semipermanent slope debt.

A important information of its concern securities are Kazakhstan authorities bonds, providing comparatively stable, though concentrated, exposure. Customer loans and deposits are astir equal, indicating dependable liquidity management, portion KDIF security further mitigates systemic risk. Core KPIs proceed to amusement double-digit integrated maturation crossed gross merchant volume, full outgo volume, and full concern volume, driven by some bequest businesses and newer verticals similar travel, taxi, and grocery. Marketplace gross surged YoY, partially owed to the Turkish acquisition, though nett income was somewhat impacted by Hepsiburada’s lack of profitability.

Macroeconomic and geopolitical factors stay cardinal risks. Kazakhstan’s currency, the tenge, has historically been volatile, influenced by lipid prices, the Russian ruble, involvement rates, and planetary hazard sentiment. While Russian power remains a concern, a full-scale penetration of Kazakhstan is highly improbable owed to economic, strategic, and Chinese geopolitical considerations. Inflation and currency depreciation present a imaginable 8% resistance connected USD-denominated earnings, but Kaspi’s maturation inactive exceeds this threshold.

Turkey offers optional maturation upside, but carries governmental and economical uncertainty, including precocious ostentation and executive-driven monetary risk. The Hepsiburada acquisition represents a humble concern comparative to Kaspi’s net and currency flow.

At 7x TTM earnings, with astir 25% of marketplace headdress successful currency and bonds, Kaspi presents a uncommon operation of antiaircraft liquidity and structural growth. Despite geopolitical and macro risks, the company’s operational execution, capital-light model, and continued maturation trajectory marque it an charismatic hedge against overvalued U.S. equities portion providing vulnerability to emerging fintech and e-commerce markets.