Israeli hostages freed, Iran hit, ceasefire held — 2025 shattered the idea the US was exiting the Middle East

For years, Washington has spoken astir reducing its Middle East footprint, yet analysts told Fox News Digital that 2025 proved the opposite: American unit — not retreat — reshaped the region.

Blaise Misztal, vice president for argumentation astatine the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA), said the past twelvemonth confirmed a long-standing strategical lesson. "2025 underscored what Middle East watchers person agelong known, and U.S. policymakers ne'er seemed to privation to admit: that spot is the currency of the realm and determination is nary substitute for U.S. leadership," helium said.

Israeli governmental expert Nadav Eyal said the displacement was unmistakable. "What we person seen successful 2025 is an accrued relation of the United States, alternatively than a withdrawal," Eyal said. "It delivered a hostage woody and a ceasefire successful Gaza. It brought a definite level of stableness successful Syria. We spot accrued practice with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE."

"The thought that the U.S. is retired of the Middle East is conscionable retired the window," helium added.

WHITE HOUSE TURNS TO EXPANDING ABRAHAM ACCORDS AFTER ISRAEL-HAMAS CEASEFIRE

U.S. President Donald Trump poses with the signed statement astatine a satellite leaders' acme connected ending the Gaza war, amid a U.S.-brokered prisoner-hostage swap and ceasefire woody betwixt Israel and Hamas, successful Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, October 13, 2025. REUTERS/Suzanne Plunkett/Pool (Suzanne Plunkett/Reuters )

Gaza: The ceasefire and the hostages

During 2025, the Trump medication brokered a ceasefire that ended the two-year warfare successful Gaza and returned each Israeli hostages but for the assemblage of Ran Gvili, which inactive remains successful Hamas's hands. The woody was initially met with heavy skepticism wrong Israel. 

President Trump traveled to some Israel — wherever helium addressed the Knesset and Cairo to finalize the agreement, coordinating with Arab leaders and mediators successful a analyzable process that included an speech of Palestinian terrorists held successful Israeli prisons for hostages.

"There is perfectly nary uncertainty that without President Trump’s intervention, this could person lasted overmuch longer, oregon possibly not person ended astatine all, oregon ended successful tragedy," Eyal said, adding that the medication fundamentally changed what had been considered possible.

"He expanded the realm of possibilities," Eyal said. "If idiosyncratic had told america six months earlier that this would beryllium the model of the deal, and that each the surviving hostages would beryllium backmost location wrong 72 hours, we would person said it’s a large idea, but Hamas would ne'er agree."

Israeli hostages released successful the Trump-brokered ceasefire woody met with U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. (The Hostages and Missing Families Forum)

According to Eyal, the breakthrough came from Israeli subject unit combined with U.S. insistence and determination coordination. "The subject unit enactment by Israel, enabled by the White House, unneurotic with the White House’s insistence and the enlistment of Qatar and Turkey, is what made the breakthrough," helium said.

Misztal besides argued that the result was not the effect of diplomacy alone. "The comparative calm that the portion is present enjoying, aft 2 years of war, is not the effect of diplomacy, which failed connected its ain to halt Iran’s atomic beforehand oregon person Hamas to instrumentality Israeli hostages," Misztal said. "It is the effect of Israeli and U.S. willingness to usage force, and bash truthful unneurotic successful pursuit of communal objectives."

"Operations Rising Lion and Midnight Hammer, coupled with the Israeli onslaught successful Doha, unlocked the way to peace," helium added.

The ceasefire remains fragile but intact, with the U.S. present profoundly progressive successful shaping the postwar signifier successful Gaza.

US MILITARY TO OVERSEE NEXT PHASE OF PEACE DEAL FROM COORDINATION BASE IN ISRAEL

President Donald Trump met with 7 hostages freed from Hamas captivity. 3/7/25 (Photo provided by Hostages Families Forum)

Regional shockwaves

On Dec. 8 past year, aft Israel defeated Hezbollah, the Assad authorities successful Syria collapsed, signaling a melodramatic displacement successful the determination equilibrium of power.

That momentum carried into 2025. Operation Rising Lion known arsenic the 12-day war, underscored Israel’s aerial superiority, with Israeli craft striking Iranian subject infrastructure and eliminating elder IRGC commanders.

The run besides highlighted the extent of U.S.-Israel coordination, culminating successful a U.S. onslaught that targeted Iran’s atomic programme and curtailed Tehran’s quality to enactment its proxies.

Smokes raises from a gathering of the Soroka infirmary analyzable aft it was deed by a rocket fired from Iran successful Be'er Sheva, Israel, Thursday, June 19, 2025. (AP Photo/Leo Correa) (AP Photo/Leo Correa)

Eyal said Iran present faces a play of profound uncertainty. "Iran will, without doubt, effort to rebuild its power aft its proxy strategy was shattered," helium said. "It was defeated successful warfare with Israel and mislaid astir of its atomic program."

Two questions present dominate. "Can Iran rebuild its alliances, its prestige and its sources of power, similar the atomic programme oregon aerial defenses, and stabilize itself again arsenic a determination power?" Eyal asked. "The deeper question," helium added, "is what happens to the regime."

He described Iran arsenic progressively unstable, with a devastated system and increasing nationalist discontent. "It seems similar astir everything is ripe for a important alteration successful Iran," helium said. "Whether the Islamic Republic tin past without important reform, oregon whether determination volition beryllium a coup oregon counterrevolution, volition instrumentality america good into 2026."

FIVE POSSIBLE FUTURES FOR MIDDLE EAST FROM RENAISSANCE TO ROCKETS

This outer representation provided by Maxar Technologies shows harm astatine the Fordow enrichment installation successful Iran aft U.S. strikes, Sunday, June 22, 2025.  (Maxar Technologies via AP)

"The sands of the Middle East are ever shifting": What to expect successful 2026

Eyal said the past twelvemonth forced a reckoning astir Hamas’ future. "In 2025, Israelis, and to a definite grade countries successful the Middle East, woke up from a phantasy that Hamas would cease to beryllium wholly arsenic a functioning body," helium said.

"Everybody understands determination volition beryllium immoderate benignant of beingness of Hamas, and unfortunately, they volition clasp immoderate benignant of equipped power," Eyal added. "The question is, to what level tin you trim it?"

WALTZ HAILS ‘NIGHT-AND-DAY’ MIDDLE EAST SHIFT AS TRUMP’S GAZA PLAN RESHAPES REGION

Palestinians proceed their regular lives nether harsh conditions amid the rubble of destroyed buildings successful the Jabalia exile campy successful bluish Gaza pursuing the enforcement of a ceasefire agreement, connected February 10, 2025. (Mahmoud ssa/Anadolu via Getty Images)

At the aforesaid time, helium stressed the standard of Hamas’ losses. "In 2025 they suffered tremendous defeats and were wiped retired arsenic a functioning subject body," Eyal said. "This is the twelvemonth successful which it happened."

"Even aft losing fractional of Gaza, with Gaza devastated, and the hostages returned, they are inactive functioning arsenic a subject organization," helium added. "That means they are incredibly resistant oregon flexible."

Misztal warned that the calm volition not clasp without sustained U.S. engagement. "The sands of the Middle East are ever shifting," helium said. "Today’s calm volition not past without accordant effort applied to uphold it."

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Hamas terrorists basal successful enactment arsenic Palestinians stitchery connected a thoroughfare to ticker the handover of 3 Israeli hostages to a Red Cross squad successful Deir el-Balah, cardinal Gaza, connected Feb. 8, 2025.  (Majdi Fathi/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

He warned that 2026 could spot renewed unit from aggregate fronts. "Adversaries volition question to reassert themselves and find caller advantages," Misztal said. "Iran volition trial the boundaries of U.S. and Israeli patience and ISIS oregon different Sunni extremists whitethorn question a spectacular onslaught to people their comeback."

"These volition each beryllium tests for the U.S. appetite to proceed applying the ‘peace done strength’ approach," Misztal said. "If Washington takes its eyes disconnected the region, the advancement of the past twelvemonth mightiness rapidly beryllium lost."