Is This EV Stock The Next Tesla?

When Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) went nationalist successful Nov. 2021, immoderate bullish investors claimed the electrical conveyance (EV) shaper could go the adjacent Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA). But arsenic of this writing, Rivian's banal trades astir 80% beneath its IPO price. Let's spot wherefore Rivian disappointed the marketplace -- and if it inactive has a changeable to go the adjacent Tesla.

Missed Nvidia successful 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" awesome flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the archetypal clip successful years, that aforesaid "Total Conviction" awesome is flashing for a institution 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »

Why did Rivian's banal crumble?

Rivian initially produced 3 EVs: the R1T pickup, R1S SUV, and customized electrical transportation vans for Amazon and different companies. This March, it launched its cheapest vehicle, the R2 SUV, to grow its addressable marketplace and support gait with its competitors. However, Rivian's banal plunged due to the fact that its accumulation slowed down successful 2024 and 2025.

Data source: Rivian.

Supply concatenation constraints, reduced EV subsidies, and aggravated macro and competitory headwinds caused that slowdown. However, it expects its yearly deliveries to emergence from 42,247 vehicles successful 2025 to 62,000-67,000 vehicles successful 2026.

Rivian expects the acceleration to beryllium driven by the R2, which costs little to manufacture than its ain vehicles contempt its overmuch little price. As it ramps up accumulation and deliveries of the R2 this year, it volition proceed to merchantability its cleanable vigor credits to accepted automakers to stabilize its gross margins and partially offset rising operating expenses.

But Rivian can't beryllium compared to Tesla

Even if Rivian achieves its transportation goals this year, it would lone beryllium comparable to Tesla successful 2016, erstwhile it delivered 76,230 vehicles. Tesla delivered 1.64 cardinal vehicles successful 2025.

It could beryllium pugnacious for Rivian to lucifer that maturation trajectory for 2 reasons. First, Tesla was heavy supported by authorities subsidies, astir of which person since been reduced. Second, the EV marketplace is overmuch much crowded than it was 10 years ago. That saturation volition marque it hard for Rivian to turn ample capable for economies of standard to dilute its expenses.

From 2025 to 2028, analysts expect Rivian's gross to turn astatine a 43% CAGR arsenic its adjusted net earlier interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) crook affirmative successful the last year. That's a agleam outlook for a banal that trades astatine conscionable 3 times this year's sales, but that discount reflects a deficiency of assurance successful its quality to grow its business. Rivian is inactive worthy watching arsenic a turnaround play, but I wouldn't telephone it the "next Tesla" unless the R2 turns arsenic galore heads arsenic Tesla's mass-market Model 3 did 10 years ago.