Joel South
Tue, March 31, 2026 astatine 9:11 AM CDT 4 min read
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Surging crude lipid prices and anemic North America integrated sales—which declined 1.8% successful Q4 2025—are compressing margins faster than Colgate’s existent guidance anticipated, threatening the dividend maturation streak contempt the company’s 41.2% planetary toothpaste marketplace share.
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Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE:CL) mislaid a cardinal Wall Street backer connected Tuesday arsenic TD Cowen expert Robert Moskow downgraded the banal from Buy to Hold and chopped his terms people to $85 from $96, citing surging oil-based input costs tied to the Iran War. The determination signals that adjacent a user staples stalwart with 63 consecutive years of dividend increases is not immune to commodity-driven borderline compression.
| CL | Colgate-Palmolive | TD Cowen | Buy → Hold | $85 (from $96) | Oil outgo spike and U.S. weakness punctual net estimation cuts for 2026 and 2027 |
TD Cowen chopped its net estimates to bespeak inflationary unit from higher prices of oil-based inputs and perchance higher costs for tallow, which are up 40% versus a twelvemonth agone connected the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. WTI crude deed a 12-month precocious of $98.71 connected March 20, 2026, and has surged 33.9% connected a monthly ground from precocious February levels, compressing the input outgo assumptions embedded successful Colgate's existing guidance.
TD Cowen besides flagged that the U.S. part whitethorn necessitate incremental concern to amended sales, fixed anemic results successful 2025 and a dilatory commencement successful 2026. That interest has information down it: North America posted a -1.8% integrated income diminution successful Q4 2025 and has logged antagonistic integrated maturation successful each 4th of 2025.
Colgate delivered a coagulated Q4 2025 connected the surface. Non-GAAP EPS came successful astatine $0.95 against a $0.91 statement estimate, portion gross of $5.23 cardinal bushed the $5.13 cardinal estimation and grew 5.8% year-over-year. Full-year escaped currency travel reached $3.634 billion, and the institution returned $2.9 cardinal to shareholders done dividends and buybacks.
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