Alex Sirois
Fri, July 17, 2026 astatine 11:13 AM CDT 3 min read
Quick Read
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NVDA posted $81.6B successful Q1 gross (up 85%) and $48.6B successful escaped currency flow, achieving that maturation with zero China information halfway revenue.
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AMZN's TTM escaped currency travel collapsed 95% to $1.2B arsenic capex surged, portion NVDA trades astatine a P/FCF of 52 versus AMZN's 349.
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Amazon's ain $200B capex program deploys implicit 1 cardinal NVIDIA GPUs alongside Trainium, undermining the in-house silicon displacement narrative.
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I support hitting the bargain fastener connected NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) due to the fact that each clip Main Street panics astir Trainium, TPUs, oregon Meta's Iris spot stealing Jensen Huang's lunch, the receipts onshore and the panic looks smaller. Reddit sentiment connected NVDA dropped to a bearish people of 32 connected July 9 connected the backmost of the DeepSeek and Meta $145B spot fund posts. I work those threads. Then I work the net report. Then I bought more.
What Actually Keeps Me Buying
The customized silicon communicative sounds terrifying until you look astatine what hyperscalers are really doing with their money. Amazon's ain $200 cardinal 2026 capex program explicitly funds 1 million+ NVIDIA GPUs to beryllium deployed starting successful 2026 alongside Trainium. ASICs are narrow. NVIDIA sells the general-purpose cloth that each model, each framework, and each unreality already runs on. That is the flexibility bottleneck ASICs cannot break, the CUDA bundle fort I garbage to stake against, and the system-level engineering (NVLink, InfiniBand, Dynamo, Blackwell, Vera Rubin) that turns racks into what Jensen calls AI factories.
The numbers backmost the story. Q1 FY2027 gross landed astatine $81.615 billion, up 85.23% twelvemonth implicit year, with Data Center astatine $75.246 cardinal (+92%) and networking up 199%. Non-GAAP gross borderline sat astatine 75.0%. Free currency travel deed $48.554 cardinal successful a azygous quarter. That is simply a 4th consecutive EPS beat, astatine $1.87 versus $1.7738 consensus.
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Then determination is the request signal. $119.0 cardinal successful full supply-related commitments represents booked capacity. Management is assured capable to rise the dividend from $0.01 to $0.25 per stock and adhd an $80 cardinal buyback authorization, with astir $20 cardinal returned successful Q1 alone.
Why Not Just Buy Amazon Instead
Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) is the evident counter. I ain some. I americium not adding here. Amazon's P/FCF sits astatine 349.33 against NVIDIA's 51.96, ROE is 22.3% versus 101.5%, and gross borderline is 50.3% versus 71.1%. The kicker: Amazon's TTM escaped currency travel declined 95% to $1.2 cardinal arsenic capex ripped higher, portion semipermanent indebtedness jumped to $119.1 cardinal from $65.6 billion. NVIDIA collects the checks Amazon is writing.

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