Here is how Team USA can advance in World Baseball Classic after stunning loss to Italy

Team USA is successful a precarious presumption aft their stunning 8-6 nonaccomplishment to Team Italy successful their last crippled of excavation play connected Tuesday astatine Daikin Park: They nary longer power their ain destiny successful the World Baseball Classic.

Italy improved to 3-0 with the victory, portion the U.S. dropped to 3-1. While Italy and the U.S. some person 3 wins, Team Mexico is 2-1, and they play Italy connected Wednesday.

If Italy beats Mexico, they would amended to 4-0 successful excavation play, and Mexico would driblet to 2-2. In that scenario, Team USA would beryllium the runner-up successful Pool B and beforehand with Italy to the quarterfinal round.

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United States close fielder Aaron Judge (99) walks backmost to the dugout aft striking retired against Italy to extremity the ninth inning astatine Daikin Park successful Houston, Texas, connected March 10, 2026. (Thomas Shea/Imagn Images)

However, if Mexico defeats Italy connected Wednesday, the U.S., Italy and Mexico would each beryllium 3-1. In that scenario, Team USA could extremity up being the unusual antheral out. If Mexico defeats Italy, they are guaranteed to determination on, leaving the last spot betwixt Team USA and Italy.

The archetypal tiebreaker is based connected runs allowed divided by antiaircraft outs recorded successful the games betwixt the 3 teams. Not each games are 9 innings successful the World Baseball Classic, arsenic determination are mercy rules.

If a squad is winning by 15 runs aft 5 innings oregon 10 runs aft 7 innings, the crippled ends. The mercy regularisation is lone successful effect for excavation play and quarterfinal games.

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Italy pitcher Greg Weissert, right, celebrates with catcher J.J. D'Orazio (28) aft defeating the United States successful a World Baseball Classic game, Tuesday, March 10, 2026, successful Houston.  (Ashley Landis/AP Photo)

On the flip side, extra-inning games tin alteration the calculus arsenic well.

Because Mexico has allowed less runs than Italy successful excavation play, they are guaranteed to determination connected if they bushed Italy connected Wednesday.

If Mexico wins, the lone mode the United States could beforehand would beryllium if Italy yielded much than 5 runs successful their loss, assuming the crippled is conscionable 9 innings.

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United States halfway fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong (4) hits a location tally against Italy successful the seventh inning of a World Baseball Classic crippled successful Houston, Texas, connected March 10, 2026. (Ashley Landis/AP Photo)

Italy tin suffer and inactive determination connected if they springiness up 4 oregon less runs to Mexico successful the loss.

Mexico and Italy play astatine 7 p.m. ET connected FS1, and Team USA volition beryllium watching with bated breath.

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